Related papers: Nowcasting the Portuguese GDP with Monthly Data
Contrary to conventional economic growth theory, which reduces a country's output to one aggregate variable (GDP), product diversity is central to economic development, as recent 'economic complexity' research suggests. A country's product…
We propose a modular framework for temporal disaggregation of quarterly GDP into monthly frequency, in which the regression step accommodates any supervised learning model while Mariano-Murasawa reconciliation enforces quarterly…
Forecasting imbalance prices is essential for strategic participation in the short-term energy markets. A novel two-step probabilistic approach is proposed, with a particular focus on the Belgian case. The first step consists of computing…
This paper discusses the empirical validity of Goodwin's (1967) macroeconomic model of growth with cycles by assuming that the individual income distribution of the Brazilian society is described by the Gompertz-Pareto distribution (GPD).…
Temporal disaggregation is a method commonly used in official statistics to enable high-frequency estimates of key economic indicators, such as GDP. Traditionally, such methods have relied on only a couple of high-frequency indicator series…
This paper surveys the recent advances in machine learning method for economic forecasting. The survey covers the following topics: nowcasting, textual data, panel and tensor data, high-dimensional Granger causality tests, time series…
This paper presents an analysis of Green Gross Domestic Product (GGDP) using the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) model to evaluate its impact on global climate mitigation and economic health. GGDP is proposed as a…
GDP/capita correlations are investigated in various time windows (TW), for the time interval 1990-2005. The target group of countries is the set of 25 EU members, 15 till 2004 plus the 10 countries which joined EU later on. The TW-means of…
With this work we try to analyse the agglomeration process in the Portuguese regions, using the New Economic Geography models. In these models the base idea is that where has increasing returns to scale in the manufactured industry and low…
This paper develops a dynamic factor model that uses euro area (EA) country-specific information on output and inflation to estimate an area-wide measure of the output gap. Our model assumes that output and inflation can be decomposed into…
This research proposes a flexible Bayesian extension of the composite Gaussian process (CGP) model of Ba and Joseph (2012) for predicting (stationary or) non-stationary $y(\mathbf{x})$. The CGP generalizes the regression plus stationary…
The gross domestic product (GDP) is the most widely used indicator in macroeconomics and the main tool for measuring a country's economic output. Due to the diversity and complexity of the world economy, a wide range of models have been…
The validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis has been under severe scrutiny since several decades. However, the evidence against it is not conclusive. Artificial Neural Networks provide a model-free means to analize the prediction power…
With this study we want to test the validity of the well known "Verdoorn's Law" which considers the relationship between the growth of productivity and output in the case of the Portuguese economy at a regional and sectoral levels (NUTs II)…
This study aims to analyze the methodologies that can be used to estimate the total number of unemployed, as well as the unemployment rates for 28 regions of Portugal, designated as NUTS III regions, using model based approaches as compared…
By implementing a recent technique for the determination of stochastic eigendirections of two coupled stochastic variables, we investigate the evolution of fluctuations of NO2 concentrations at two monitoring stations in the city of Lisbon,…
This paper develops a novel, fully automated forecast averaging scheme, which combines LASSO estimation method with Principal Component Averaging (PCA). LASSO-PCA (LPCA) explores a pool of predictions based on a single model but calibrated…
We present a new metric estimating fitness of countries and complexity of products by exploiting a non-linear non-homogeneous map applied to the publicly available information on the goods exported by a country. The non homogeneous terms…
We propose a compartmental mathematical model for the spread of the COVID-19 disease, showing its usefulness with respect to the pandemic in Portugal, from the first recorded case in the country till the end of the three states of…
On the occasion of the last FIFA World Cup in Brazil, The Economist published a plot depicting how many goals have been scored in all World Cup competitions until present, minute by minute. The plot was followed by a naive and poorly…