Related papers: Nowcasting the Portuguese GDP with Monthly Data
Timely characterizations of risks in economic and financial systems play an essential role in both economic policy and private sector decisions. However, the informational content of low-frequency variables and the results from conditional…
This work aims to study the Portuguese regional agglomeration process, using the linear form the New Economic Geography models that emphasize the importance of spatial factors (distance, costs of transport and communication) in explaining…
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers around the world operate a variety of NWP models. In addition, recent advances in AI-driven NWP models have further increased the availability of NWP outputs. While this expansion holds the…
Recent studies concerning the point electricity price forecasting have shown evidence that the hourly German Intraday Continuous Market is weak-form efficient. Therefore, we take a novel, advanced approach to the problem. A probabilistic…
Purpose: This paper proposes a methodology and a computational tool to study the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the world and to perform a trend analysis to assess its local dynamics. Methods: Mathematical functions are employed to describe…
This paper pretends to analyze the importance which the natural advantages and local resources are in the manufacturing industry location, in relation with the "spillovers" effects and industrial policies. To this, we estimate the…
This paper considers an entropy-power inequality (EPI) of Costa and presents a natural vector generalization with a real positive semidefinite matrix parameter. This new inequality is proved using a perturbation approach via a fundamental…
Forecast reconciliation is a post-forecasting process aimed to improve the quality of the base forecasts for a system of hierarchical/grouped time series (Hyndman et al., 2011). Contemporaneous (cross-sectional) and temporal hierarchies…
We consider the sectoral composition of a country's GDP, i.e. the partitioning into agrarian, industrial, and service sectors. Exploring a simple system of differential equations we characterize the transfer of GDP shares between the…
Real GDP growth rate in developed countries is found to be a sum of two terms. The first term is the reciprocal value of the duration of the period of mean income growth with work experience, Tcr. The current value of Tcr in the USA is 40…
Accurate demand forecasting is vital for ensuring reliable access to contraceptive products, supporting key processes like procurement, inventory, and distribution. However, forecasting contraceptive demand in developing countries presents…
Policy targets are being set increasingly for social and economic variables in the UK. This approach requires that reasonably successful ex ante forecasts can be made. We propose a general methodology for assessing the extent to which this…
Renewable electricity generation has grown significantly across many European power systems, leading to a greener energy mix, but also additional complexity in balancing electricity supply and demand. Unexpected differences between…
With the increasing availability of meteorological data from various sensors, numerical models and reanalysis products, the need for efficient data integration methods has become paramount for improving weather forecasts and…
This paper introduces an integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (INGARCH) model based on the novel geometric distribution and discusses some of its properties. The parameter estimation problem of the models…
The Bayesian statistical paradigm provides a principled and coherent approach to probabilistic forecasting. Uncertainty about all unknowns that characterize any forecasting problem -- model, parameters, latent states -- is able to be…
This paper presents a novel adaptive-filter approach for predicting assets on the stock markets. Concepts are introduced here, which allow understanding this method and computing of the corresponding forecast. This approach is applied, as…
We consider a government that aims at reducing the debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of a country. The government observes the level of the debt-to-GDP ratio and an indicator of the state of the economy, but does not directly…
This paper shows how measures of uncertainty can be applied to existing population forecasts using Estonia as a case study. The measures of forecast uncertainty are relatively easy to calculate and meet several important criteria used by…
Accurate forecasting of downside risks to economic growth is critically important for policymakers and financial institutions, particularly in the wake of recent economic crises. This paper extends the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) approach by…