Related papers: Nowcasting the Portuguese GDP with Monthly Data
With this work it is analyzed the import and export of horticultural products between Portugal and the other world countries. It is used data about Portuguese international trade of vegetables from 2006 to 2010. The data were obtained from…
In the last 150 years, CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has increased from 280 parts per million to 400 parts per million. This has caused an increase in the average global temperatures by nearly 0.7 degree centigrade due to the…
All productive branches of society need an estimate to be able to control their expenses well. In the energy business, electric utilities use this information to control the power flow in the grid. For better energy production estimation of…
We present a simple method for predicting the distribution of output growth and inflation in the G7 economies. The method is based on point forecasts published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as well as robust statistics from the…
This paper develops a methodology for tracking in real time the impact of shocks (such as natural disasters, financial crises or pandemics) on gross domestic product (GDP) by analyzing high-frequency electricity market data. As an…
Forecasts for key macroeconomic variables are almost always made simultaneously by the same organizations, presented together, and used together in policy analyses and decision-makings. It is therefore important to know whether the…
The Hodrick-Prescott filter represents one of the most popular method for trend-cycle extraction in macroeconomic time series. In this paper we provide a multivariate generalization of the Hodrick-Prescott filter, based on the seemingly…
For Portugal there are few or none works about the international trade of fruits between Portugal and the other countries. In this work it aims to analyze the more recent data for the Portuguese international trade of fruits. They were used…
We propose a functional MIDAS model to leverage high-frequency information for forecasting and nowcasting distributions observed at a lower frequency. We approximate the low-frequency distribution using Functional Principal Component…
This paper exploits the decomposition structure of the large-scale hydrothermal generation expansion planning problem with an integrated modified Benders Decomposition and Progressive Hedging approach. We consider detailed and realistic…
We use the aggregate information from individual-to-firm and firm-to-firm in Garanti BBVA Bank transactions to mimic domestic private demand. Particularly, we replicate the quarterly national accounts aggregate consumption and investment…
This paper presents a data set describing the evolution of results in the Portuguese Parliamentary Elections of October 6$^{th}$ 2019. The data spans a time interval of 4 hours and 25 minutes, in intervals of 5 minutes, concerning the…
Gross domestic product (GDP) nowcasting is crucial for policy-making as GDP growth is a key indicator of economic conditions. Dynamic factor models (DFMs) have been widely adopted by government agencies for GDP nowcasting due to their…
This paper aims to explore the application of machine learning in forecasting Chinese macroeconomic variables. Specifically, it employs various machine learning models to predict the quarterly real GDP growth of China, and analyzes the…
The GDP growth of national economies is modelled by the logistic function. Applying it on the GDP data of the World Bank till the year 2020, we forecast the outcome of the competitive GDP growth of Japan, Germany, UK and India, all of whose…
By integrating survival analysis, machine learning algorithms, and economic interpretation, this research examines the temporal dynamics associated with attaining a 5 percent rise in purchasing power parity-adjusted GDP per capita over a…
The aim of this paper is to present a further contribution to the analysis of absolute convergence (and), associated with the neoclassical theory, and conditional, associated with endogenous growth theory, of the sectoral productivity at…
We propose a complete reconciliation procedure, resulting in a 'one number forecast' of the GDP figure, coherent with both Income and Expenditure sides' forecasted series, and evaluate its performance on the Australian quarterly GDP series,…
Forecasting economic growth of India has been traditionally an uncertain exercise. The indicators and factors affecting economic structures and the variables required to model that captures the situation correctly is point of concern.…
This paper uses predictive densities obtained via mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive models to evaluate the statistical sustainability of Brazilian inflation targeting system with the tolerance bounds. The probabilities give an…