Related papers: Nowcasting the Portuguese GDP with Monthly Data
UK GDP data is published with a lag time of more than a month and it is often adjusted for prior periods. This paper contemplates breaking away from the historic GDP measure to a more dynamic method using Bank Account, Cheque and Credit…
Recent strides in economic complexity have shown that the future economic development of nations can be predicted with a single "economic fitness" variable, which captures countries' competitiveness in international trade. The predictions…
Recent years have seen many attempts to combine expenditure-side estimates of U.S. real output (GDE) growth with income-side estimates (GDI) to improve estimates of real GDP growth. We show how to incorporate information from multiple…
Hydroelectricity accounted for roughly 61.4% of Brazil's total generation in 2024 and addressed most of the intermittency of wind and solar generation. Thus, inflow forecasting plays a critical role in the operation, planning, and market in…
Politicians world-wide frequently promise a better life for their citizens. We find that the probability that a country will increase its {\it per capita} GDP ({\it gdp}) rank within a decade follows an exponential distribution with decay…
Can we use data on the biographies of historical figures to estimate the GDP per capita of countries and regions? Here we introduce a machine learning method to estimate the GDP per capita of dozens of countries and hundreds of regions in…
The economy in the modern world is greatly influenced by artificial intelligence (AI). This paper aims to determine the impact of AI quantitative relationships on the country's economic parameters, including GDP per Capita. Historical data…
We compare forecasts of United States inflation from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to predictions made by simple statistical techniques. In nowcasting, economic expertise is persuasive. When projecting beyond the current…
This article investigates factor-augmented sparse MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) regressions for high-dimensional time series data, which may be observed at different frequencies. Our novel approach integrates sparse and dense dimensionality…
This paper develops a mixed frequency vector autoregressive (MF-VAR) model to produce nowcasts and historical estimates of monthly real state-level GDP for the 50 U.S. states, plus Washington DC, from 1964 through the present day. The…
This paper investigates the benefits of internet search data in the form of Google Trends for nowcasting real U.S. GDP growth in real time through the lens of mixed frequency Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) models. We augment and…
GDP is a vital measure of a country's economic health, reflecting the total value of goods and services produced. Forecasting GDP growth is essential for economic planning, as it helps governments, businesses, and investors anticipate…
The fixed-event forecasting setup is common in economic policy. It involves a sequence of forecasts of the same (`fixed') predictand, so that the difficulty of the forecasting problem decreases over time. Fixed-event point forecasts are…
This paper presents a new way to account for downside and upside risks when producing density nowcasts of GDP growth. The approach relies on modelling location, scale and shape common factors in real-time macroeconomic data. While movements…
Accurate tracking of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is crucial for shaping climate policies and meeting global decarbonization targets. However, energy consumption and emissions data are released annually and with substantial…
Growth rate of real GDP per capita is represented as a sum of two components -- a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to a specific age population change. The economic trend is modeled by an inverse function of…
Updating observations of a signal due to the delays in the measurement process is a common problem in signal processing, with prominent examples in a wide range of fields. An important example of this problem is the nowcasting of COVID-19…
The growth rate of real GDP per capita in the biggest OECD countries is represented as a sum of two components - a steadily decreasing trend and fluctuations related to the change in some specific age population. The long term trend in the…
Using a state-of-the-art large language model, we extract forward-looking and context-sensitive signals related to inflation and unemployment in the euro area from millions of Reddit submissions and comments. We develop daily indicators…
This paper develops a high-frequency economic indicator using a Bayesian Dynamic Factor Model estimated with mixed-frequency data. The model incorporates weekly, monthly, and quarterly official indicators, and allows for dynamic…