Related papers: Nowcasting the Portuguese GDP with Monthly Data

Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important economic indicator that aggregates useful information to assist economic agents and policymakers in their decision-making process. In this context, GDP forecasting becomes a powerful decision…

Alternative data sets are widely used for macroeconomic nowcasting together with machine learning--based tools. The latter are often applied without a complete picture of their theoretical nowcasting properties. Against this background,…

Economic forecasting is concerned with the estimation of some variable like gross domestic product (GDP) in the next period given a set of variables that describes the current situation or state of the economy, including industrial…

We develop a novel Bayesian framework for dynamic modeling of mixed frequency data to nowcast quarterly U.S. GDP growth. The introduced framework utilizes foundational Bayesian theory and treats data sampled at different frequencies as…

This paper aims to examine the use of sparse methods to forecast the real, in the chain-linked volume sense, expenditure components of the US and EU GDP in the short-run sooner than the national institutions of statistics officially release…

The paper studies the nowcasting of Euro area Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth using mixed data sampling machine learning panel data regressions with both standard macro releases and daily news data. Using a panel of 19 Euro area…

Timely assessment of current conditions is essential especially for small, open economies such as Singapore, where external shocks transmit rapidly to domestic activity. We develop a real-time nowcasting framework for quarterly GDP growth…

Nowcasting can play a key role in giving policymakers timelier insight to data published with a significant time lag, such as final GDP figures. Currently, there are a plethora of methodologies and approaches for practitioners to choose…

Real-time economic information is essential for policy-making but difficult to obtain. We introduce a granular nowcasting method for macro- and industry-level GDP using a network approach and data on real-time monthly inter-industry…

In this paper the methodology proponed by Cerqueira et al, 2008; is applied to estimate the three-month series of the Chilean Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the period composed between 1965 and 2009. In First place, the equation of Engle-…

We evaluate the informational content of news-based sentiment indicators for forecasting Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and other macroeconomic variables of the five major European economies. Our data set includes over 27 million articles for…

This paper presents a novel machine learning approach to GDP prediction that incorporates volatility as a model weight. The proposed method is specifically designed to identify and select the most relevant macroeconomic variables for…

In last years, the Portuguese economy has gone through a severe adjustment process, affecting almost all industrial sectors, the building blocks of economic structures. Research on economic structural changes has made use of input/output…

We develop Bayesian machine learning methods for mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. This involves handling frequency mismatches and specifying functional relationships between many predictors and the dependent variable. We use…

Timely information about the state of regional economies can be essential for planning, implementing and evaluating locally targeted economic policies. However, European regional accounts for output are published at an annual frequency and…

In this paper, we present a new approach based on dynamic factor models (DFMs) to perform nowcasts for the percentage annual variation of the Mexican Global Economic Activity Indicator (IGAE in Spanish). The procedure consists of the…

We investigate the predictive power of different machine learning algorithms to nowcast Madagascar's gross domestic product (GDP). We trained popular regression models, including linear regularized regression (Ridge, Lasso, Elastic-net),…

Growth rate of real GDP per capita, GDPpc, is represented as a sum of two components, a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to population change. The economic trend is modelled by an inverse function of GDPpc…

The paper deals with the construction of a synthetic indicator of economic growth, obtained by projecting a quarterly measure of aggregate economic activity, namely gross domestic product (GDP), into the space spanned by a finite number of…

Besides an indicator of the GDP, the Central Bank of Venezuela generates the so called Monthly Economic Activity General Indicator. The a priori knowledge of this indicator, which represents and sometimes even anticipates the economy's…