Related papers: A modeling approach for estimating dynamic measles…

The study proposes a modeling framework for investigating the disease dynamics with adaptive human behavior during a disease outbreak, considering the impacts of both local observations and global information. One important application…

Measurement error in observational datasets can lead to systematic bias in inferences based on these datasets. As studies based on observational data are increasingly used to inform decisions with real-world impact, it is critical that we…

When an infectious disease outbreak is of a relatively small size, describing the ancestry of a sample of infected individuals is difficult because most ancestral models assume large population sizes. Given a set of infected individuals, we…

This article proposes an age-structured compartment model for irreversible diseases with a pre-clinical state of undiagnosed cases that precedes the diagnosis. The model is able to cope with mortality rates differing between the…

The modeling of the spreading of communicable diseases has experienced significant advances in the last two decades or so. This has been possible due to the proliferation of data and the development of new methods to gather, mine and…

The primary tool for predicting infectious disease spread and intervention effectiveness is the mass action Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model of Kermack and McKendrick. Its usefulness derives largely from its conceptual and mathematical…

An individual-based model of the infectious disease spread among the urban population is considered. A system of stochastic equations, which describes changes in quantities of four population groups, susceptible, exposed, infected…

During an infectious disease pandemic, it is critical to share electronic medical records or models (learned from these records) across regions. Applying one region's data/model to another region often have distribution shift issues that…

Among the realistic ingredients to be considered in the computational modeling of infectious diseases, human mobility represents a crucial challenge both on the theoretical side and in view of the limited availability of empirical data. In…

A model based on a thermodynamic approach is proposed for predicting the dynamics of communicable epidemics in a city, when the epidemic is governed by controlling efforts of multiple scales so that an entropy is associated with the system.…

This paper addresses statistical modelling and forecasting of key indicators describing the severity of a developing pandemic, using routinely reported daily counts of infections, hospitalizations, deaths (both in and out of hospital), and…

Cure rate models are mostly used to study data arising from cancer clinical trials. Its use in the context of infectious diseases has not been explored well. In 2008, Tournoud and Ecochard first proposed a mechanistic formulation of cure…

One of the major issues in the theoretical modeling of epidemic spreading is the development of methods to control the transmission of an infectious agent. Human behavior plays a fundamental role in the spreading dynamics and can be used to…

It is estimated that around 80\% of the world's population live in areas susceptible to at-least one major vector borne disease, and approximately 20% of global communicable diseases are spread by mosquitoes. Furthermore, the outbreaks of…

Infectious disease spread is a multi-scale process composed of within-host (biological) and between-host (social) drivers and disentangling them from each other is a central challenge in epidemiology. Here, we introduce VIBES, a multi-scale…

The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…

Epidemics are often modelled using non-linear dynamical systems observed through partial and noisy data. In this paper, we consider stochastic extensions in order to capture unknown influences (changing behaviors, public interventions,…

We consider an age-structured epidemic model with two basic public health interventions: (i) identifying and isolating symptomatic cases, and (ii) tracing and quarantine of the contacts of identified infectives. The dynamics of the infected…

Urban areas with larger and more connected populations offer an auspicious environment for contagion processes such as the spread of pathogens. Empirical evidence reveals a systematic increase in the rates of certain sexually transmitted…

Infectious diseases, either emerging or long-lasting, place numerous people at risk and bring heavy public health burdens worldwide. In the process against infectious diseases, predicting the epidemic risk by modeling the disease…