Related papers: A modeling approach for estimating dynamic measles…
Motivated by foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak data from Turkey, we develop a model to estimate disease risk based on a space-time record of outbreaks. The spread of infectious disease in geographical units depends on both transmission…
Infections are known to interact as previous infections may have an effect on risk of succumbing to a new infection. The co-dynamics can be mediated by immunosuppression or -modulation, shared environmental or climatic drivers, or…
The emergence of novel infectious agents presents challenges to statistical models of disease transmission. These challenges arise from limited, poor-quality data and an incomplete understanding of the agent. Moreover, outbreaks manifest…
Epidemiological delays, such as incubation periods, serial intervals, and hospital lengths of stay, are among key quantities in infectious disease epidemiology that inform public health policy and clinical practice. This information is used…
OBJECTIVE: To propose a new approach to analyze the age-distribution of reported cases for vector-transmitted infections. METHODS: Using officially reported number of cases of dengue, Zika, chikungunya, malaria and leishmaniasis for…
In this paper, we develop a method to estimate the infection-rate of a disease, over a region, as a field that varies in space and time. To do so, we use time-series of case-counts of symptomatic patients as observed in the areal units that…
Probabilistic models for infectious disease dynamics are useful for understanding the mechanism underlying the spread of infection. When the likelihood function for these models is expensive to evaluate, traditional likelihood-based…
\textbf{Background} Measles has resurged globally in the post-pandemic period as routine immunisation recovery remains below the two-dose threshold required to interrupt transmission. Bangladesh, previously nearing measles--rubella…
Epidemiological models describe the spread of an infectious disease within a population. They capture microscopic details on how the disease is passed on among individuals in various different ways, while making predictions about the state…
The main aim of the work is to present a general class of two time scales discrete-time epidemic models. In the proposed framework the disease dynamics is considered to act on a slower time scale than a second different process that could…
Disease forecasting models typically rely on a single data stream, making models brittle when histories are short or noisy. Recent top-performing models have shown that synthesizing multiple reporting systems for the same disease improves…
Early outbreak detection is a key aspect in the containment of infectious diseases, as it enables the identification and isolation of infected individuals before the disease can spread to a larger population. Instead of detecting unexpected…
The accurate estimation of time-varying transmission rates is fundamental for understanding infectious disease dynamics and implementing effective public health interventions. To this end, we propose an improved inverse method for…
Prediction of the progression of an infectious disease outbreak is important for planning and coordinating a response. Differential equations are often used to model an epidemic outbreak's behaviour but are challenging to parameterise.…
We use the illness-death model (IDM) for chronic conditions to derive a new analytical relation between the transition rates between the states of the IDM. The transition rates are the incidence rate (i) and the mortality rates of people…
Controlling infectious diseases is a major health priority because they can spread and infect humans, thus evolving into epidemics or pandemics. Therefore, early detection of infectious diseases is a significant need, and many researchers…
Our work stems from the consideration that the spreading of a disease is modulated by the individual's perception of the infected neighborhood and his/her strategy to avoid being infected as well. We introduced a general ``cellular agent''…
Age structure is incorporated in many types of epidemic model. Often it is convenient to assume that such models converge to early asymptotic behaviour quickly, before the susceptible population has been appreciably depleted. We make use of…
We consider the spread of epidemics in technological and social networks. How do people react? Does awareness and cautious behavior help? We analyze these questions and present a dynamic model to describe the movement of individuals and/or…
Waning immunity and reinfection are critical features of many infectious diseases, but epidemiological models often fail to capture the intricate interaction between an individual's history of immunity and their current infection status;…