Related papers: A modeling approach for estimating dynamic measles…
The methods used so far for the analysis of time changes in population health suffer from the lack of causality in their design. This results in problems with their implementation and interpretation. Here the method is presented with…
The proliferation of early diagnostic technologies, including self-monitoring systems and wearables, coupled with the application of these technologies on large segments of healthy populations may significantly aggravate the problem of…
A central pillar of the UK's response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was the provision of up-to-the moment nowcasts and short term projections to monitor current trends in transmission and associated healthcare burden. Here we present a…
Many uncontrollable disease outbreaks of the past exposed several vulnerabilities in the healthcare systems worldwide. While advancements in technology assisted in the rapid creation of the vaccinations, there needs to be a pressing focus…
The ability to directly record human face-to-face interactions increasingly enables the development of detailed data-driven models for the spread of directly transmitted infectious diseases at the scale of individuals. Complete coverage of…
Epidemic forecasting has become an integral part of real-time infectious disease outbreak response. While collaborative ensembles composed of statistical and machine learning models have become the norm for real-time forecasting,…
During the last decades, the global prevalence of dengue progressed dramatically. It is a disease which is now endemic in more than one hundred countries of Africa, America, Asia and the Western Pacific. This study addresses a mathematical…
This paper analyses the dynamics of infectious disease with a concurrent spread of disease awareness. The model includes local awareness due to contacts with aware individuals, as well as global awareness due to reported cases of infection…
Atherosclerosis is one of the principle pathologies of cardiovascular disease with blood cholesterol a significant risk factor. The World Health Organisation estimates that approximately 2.5 million deaths occur annually due to the risk…
International migration is now a significant driver of population change across Europe but the methods available to estimate its true impact upon sub-national areas remain inconsistent, constrained by inadequate systems of measurement and…
Two crucial elements facilitate the understanding and control of communicable disease spread within a social setting. These components are, the underlying contact structure among individuals that determines the pattern of disease…
In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…
During an infectious disease outbreak, public health decision-makers require real-time monitoring of disease transmission to respond quickly and intelligently. In these settings, a key measure of transmission is the instantaneous…
The spread of COVID-19 makes it essential to investigate its prevalence. In such investigation research, as far as we know, the widely-used sampling methods didn't use the information sufficiently about the numbers of the previously…
In this paper, the authors develop a method of detecting correlations between epidemic patterns in different regions that are due to human movement and introduce a null model in which the travel-induced correlations are cancelled. They…
As offered by the World Health Organisation (WHO), close to half of the population in the world's resides in dengue-risk zones. Dengue viruses are transmitted to individuals by Aedes mosquito species infected bite (Ae. Albopictus of Ae.…
We propose experimentally feasible ways to probe universal features of absorbing phase transitions from two different approaches, both based on numerical validations. On one hand, we numerically study a probability distribution of…
Rubella is a completely immunizing and mild infection in children. Understanding its behavior is of considerable public health importance because of Congenital Rubella Syndrome, which results from infection with rubella during early…
By equipping a previously reported dynamic causal model of COVID-19 with an isolation state, we modelled the effects of self-isolation consequent on tracking and tracing. Specifically, we included a quarantine or isolation state occupied by…
Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease that threatens more than half of the world's population. Despite being endemic to over 100 countries, government-led efforts and mechanisms to timely identify and track the emergence of new infections are…