Related papers: Parameter Distributions for the Drag-Based Modelin…
The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model CME propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model…
By 2050, we expect that CME models will accurately describe, and ideally predict, observed solar eruptions and the propagation of the CMEs through the corona. We describe some of the present known unknowns in observations and models that…
Solar activity, ranging from the background solar wind to energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is the main driver of the conditions in the interplanetary space and in the terrestrial space environment, known as space weather. A better…
The arrival time of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the vicinity of the Earth is one of the most important parameters in determining space weather. We have used a new approach to predicting this parameter. First, in our study, we have…
This paper presents a model predictive control (MPC) framework leveraging an ensemble of data-based models to optimally control complex systems under multiple operating conditions. A novel combination rule for ensemble models is proposed,…
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are one of the main drivers of disturbances in the interplanetary space. Strong CMEs, when directed towards the Earth, cause geo-magnetic storms upon interacting with the magnetic field of the Earthand can…
Numerical models of the solar wind and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) utilize photospheric magnetic field observations to prescribe the inner boundary conditions for the plasma solutions. These magnetic field data are available to the…
By the end of 2021, the renewable energy share of the global electricity capacity reached 38.3% and the new installations are dominated by wind and solar energy, showing global increases of 12.7% and 18.5%, respectively. However, both wind…
Many real-life dynamical systems change abruptly followed by almost stationary periods. In this paper, we consider streams of data with such abrupt behavior and investigate the problem of tracking their statistical properties in an online…
With the assumption of radial motion and uniform longitudinal distribution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), we propose a method to eliminate projection effects from the apparent observed CME latitude distribution. This method has been…
The use of the isoconfigurational ensemble to explore structure-dynamic correlations in supercooled liquids is examined. The statistical error of the dynamic propensity and its spatial distribution are determined. The authors present the…
Shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are primary drivers of gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events, posing significant risks to space technology and astronauts. Concurrently, particles accelerated at these shocks may also…
We study the kinematical characteristics and 3D geometry of a large-scale coronal wave that occurred in association with the 26 April 2008 flare-CME event. The wave was observed with the EUVI instruments aboard both STEREO spacecraft…
Many applications require that we learn the parameters of a model from data. EM is a method used to learn the parameters of probabilistic models for which the data for some of the variables in the models is either missing or hidden. There…
Propagation of charged cosmic-rays in the Galaxy depends on the transport parameters, whose number can be large depending on the propagation model under scrutiny. A standard approach for determining these parameters is a manual scan,…
Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…
Markov-chain Monte Carlo sampling has become a standard technique for exploring the posterior distribution of cosmological parameters constrained by observations of CMB anisotropies. Given an infinite amount of time, any MCMC sampler will…
Kappa distributions are widely used in space plasma physics to model velocity distribution functions with heavy tails. Parameter estimation in these distributions is, however, complicated by the fact that the kappa distribution does not…
In weather forecasting, nonhomogeneous regression is used to statistically postprocess forecast ensembles in order to obtain calibrated predictive distributions. For wind speed forecasts, the regression model is given by a truncated normal…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the main drivers of disturbances in the solar heliosphere because they propagate and interact with the magnetic field of the solar wind. It is crucial to investigate the evolution of CMEs and their…