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We present an automated pipeline for operational short-term forecasting of coronal mass ejection (CME) magnetic field structure at L1, coupling arrival time prediction, in situ detection, and iterative flux rope reconstruction, following…

In this study we use a numerical simulation of an artificial coronal mass ejection (CME) to validate a method for calculating propagation directions and kinematical profiles of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs). In this method observations from…

Due to projection effects, coronagraphic observations cannot uniquely determine parameters relevant to the geoeffectiveness of CMEs, such as the true propagation speed, width, or source location. The Cone Model for Coronal Mass Ejections…

We present the study of two solar eruptive events observed on December 7 2020 and October 28 2021.Both events were associated with full halo CMEs and flares.These events were chosen because they show a strong non-radial direction of…

We describe a geometric triangulation technique, based on time-elongation maps constructed from imaging observations, to track coronal mass ejections (CMEs) continuously in the heliosphere and predict their impact on the Earth. Taking…

For objects in the low Earth orbit region, uncertainty in atmospheric density estimation is an important source of orbit prediction error, which is critical for space situational awareness activities such as the satellite conjunction…

Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) originating from regions close to the center of the Sun are likely to be responsible for severe geomagnetic storms. It is important to predict geo-effectiveness of HCMEs using observations when they are…

In this study we present a statistical analysis of 53 fast Earth-directed halo CMEs observed by the SOHO/LASCO instrument during the period Jan. 2009-Sep. 2015, and we use this CME sample to test the capabilities of a Sun-to-Earth…

In recent years, ensemble weather forecasting have become a routine at all major weather prediction centres. These forecasts are obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models with different initial conditions or model…

Ionospheric conductance is a crucial factor in regulating the closure of magnetospheric field-aligned currents through the ionosphere as Hall and Pedersen currents. Despite its importance in predictive investigations of the magnetosphere -…

The rare-event sampling problem has long been the central limiting factor in molecular dynamics (MD), especially in biomolecular simulation. Recently, diffusion models such as BioEmu have emerged as powerful equilibrium samplers that…

Producing high-quality forecasts of key climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, on subseasonal time scales has long been a gap in operational forecasting. This study explores an application of machine learning (ML) models…

Using the potential of two unprecedented missions, STEREO and RHESSI, we study three well observed fast CMEs that occurred close to the limb together with their associated high energy flare emissions in terms of RHESSI HXR spectra and flux…

Forecast ensembles are typically employed to account for prediction uncertainties in numerical weather prediction models. However, ensembles often exhibit biases and dispersion errors, thus they require statistical post-processing to…

This work deals with an inverse two-dimensional nonlinear heat conduction problem to determine the top and lateral surface transfer coefficients. For this, the \textsc{B}ayesian framework with the \textsc{M}arkov Chain \textsc{M}onte…

Here, we develop a data-centric approach enabling to analyse which activities, function, and characteristics of the environment surrounding the slow charging infrastructure impact the distribution of the electricity consumed at slow…

The capability to predict the parameters of an SEP event such as its onset, peak flux, and duration is critical to assessing any potential space weather impact. We present a new flexible modelling system simulating the propagation of Solar…

One of the main objectives of cosmic-ray studies are precise measurements of energy and chemical composition of particles with extreme energies. Large and sophisticated detectors are used to find events seen as showers starting in the…

From the Sun we know that coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are a transient phenomenon, often correlated with flares. They have an impact on solar mass- and angular momentum loss, and therefore solar evolution, and make a significant part of…

Widespread solar energetic particle (SEP) events remain poorly understood phenomena in space weather. These events are often linked to coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their shocks, but the mechanisms governing their global particle…