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We present a novel method for generating sequential parameter estimates and quantifying epistemic uncertainty in dynamical systems within a data-consistent (DC) framework. The DC framework differs from traditional Bayesian approaches due to…
Erroneous GNSS positioning, failures in spacecraft operations and power outages due to geomagnetically induced currents are severe threats originating from space weather. Having knowledge of potential impacts on modern society in advance is…
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are subject to changes in their direction of propagation, tilt, and other properties as they interact with the variable solar wind. We investigated the heliospheric propagation of 15 Earth-impacting CMEs…
It is generally known that multi-spacecraft observations of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) more clearly reveal their three-dimensional structure than do observations made by a single spacecraft. The launch of the STEREO twin…
In this work we study the potentialities of machine learning models in reconstructing the solar wind speed observations gathered in the first Lagrangian point by the ACE satellite in 2016--2017 using as input data galactic cosmic-ray flux…
The solar wind transients propagating out in the inner heliosphere can be observed in white-light images from Heliospheric Imager-1 (HI1), an instrument of the Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI) on board…
The vulnerability of technology on which present society relies demands that a solar event, its time of arrival at Earth, and its degree of geoeffectiveness be promptly forecasted. Motivated by improving predictions of arrival times at…
An influential step in weather forecasting was the introduction of ensemble forecasts in operational use due to their capability to account for the uncertainties in the future state of the atmosphere. However, ensemble weather forecasts are…
We compare estimates of the speed and width of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in several catalogs for the CMEs associated with ~200 solar energetic particle (SEP) events in 2006-2013 that included 25 MeV protons. The catalogs used are: CDAW,…
Ensemble prediction systems are an invaluable tool for weather forecasting. Practically, ensemble predictions are obtained by running several perturbations of the deterministic control forecast. However, ensemble prediction is associated…
We explore the relationship among three coronal mass ejections (CMEs), observed on 28 October 2003, 7 November 2004, and 20 January 2005, the type II burst-associated shock waves in the corona and solar wind, as well as the arrival of their…
In the area of supercritical wing design, a variety of principles, laws and rules have been summarized by scholars who perform theoretical and experimental analyses. The applicability of these rules is usually restricted by the airfoil…
Interplanetary imagers provide 2D projected views of the densest plasma parts of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) while in situ measurements provide magnetic field and plasma parameter measurements along the spacecraft…
As acute climate change impacts weather and climate variability, there is increased demand for robust climate impact model predictions from which forecasts of the impacts can be derived. The quality of those predictions are limited by the…
We present the first real-time predictions of coronal mass ejection (CME) magnetic structure and resulting geomagnetic impact at Earth for two events using far-upstream observations from Solar Orbiter during March 2024. While our approach…
The geo-effectiveness of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) is a critical area of study in space weather, particularly in the lesser-explored domain of CME-CME interactions and their geomagnetic consequences. This study leverages the SWASTi…
Forecasting the geomagnetic effects of solar storms, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is currently severely limited by our inability to predict the magnetic field configuration in the CME magnetic core and by observational effects of…
Forecasting the in situ properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from remote images is expected to strongly enhance predictions of space weather, and is of general interest for studying the interaction of CMEs with planetary…
Ensemble forecasting is a technique devised to palliate sensitivity to initial conditions in nonlinear dynamical systems. The basic idea to avoid this sensitivity is to run the model many times under several slightly-different initial…
Shocks driven by Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are primary agents of space weather. They can accelerate particles to high energies and can compress the magnetosphere thus setting in motion geomagnetic storms. For many years, these shocks…