Related papers: Parameter Distributions for the Drag-Based Modelin…
Complex CME/ICME structures in the solar wind often arising in the heliosphere as a result of interaction between two or more CMEs are very important due to their enhanced geoefficiency, but their modeling is difficult due to lack of…
Standard epidemic models based on compartmental differential equations are investigated under continuous parameter change as external forcing. We show that seasonal modulation of the contact parameter superimposed a monotonic decay needs a…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are primary drivers of space weather and studying their evolution in the inner heliosphere is vital to prepare for a timely response. Solar wind streams, acting as background, influence their propagation in the…
Accurate forecasting of the arrival time and subsequent geomagnetic impacts of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) at Earth is an important objective for space weather forecasting agencies. Recently, the CME Arrival and Impact working team has…
The fast coronal mass ejection (CME) from 23 July 2012 raised attention due to its extremely short transit time from Sun to 1 AU of less than 21 h. In-situ data from STEREO-A revealed the arrival of a fast forward shock with a speed of more…
Statistical post-processing of dynamical forecast ensembles is an essential component of weather forecasting. In this article, we present a post-processing method that generates full predictive probability distributions for precipitation…
The main objective of the study is to determine the probability distributions of the geomagnetic Dst index as a function of the coronal mass ejection (CME) and solar flare parameters for the purpose of establishing a probabilistic forecast…
This paper presents a stochastic three-dimensional (3D) focused transport simulation of solar energetic particles (SEPs) produced by a data-driven coronal mass ejection (CME) shock propagating through a data-driven model of coronal and…
We present an application of the stereoscopic self-similar-expansion model (SSSEM) to Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO)/Sun-Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI) observations of the 03 April 2010…
Predicting transit times of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) from their initial parameters is a very important subject, not only from the scientific perspective, but also because CMEs represent a hazard for human technology. We used a neural…
Recently all major weather prediction centres provide forecast ensembles of different weather quantities which are obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models with various initial conditions and model…
Weather and climate forecasts are inherently uncertain due to chaotic dynamics, imperfect initial conditions, and incomplete representation of the underlying physical processes. Operational ensemble forecasts aim to represent these…
Propagation of interplanetary (IP) shocks, particularly those driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is still an outstanding question in heliophysics and space weather forecasting. Here we address effects of the ambient solar wind on the…
We examine the idea that dynamical parameters can be estimated by identifying locations in the solar neighbourhood where simulated velocity distributions match the observed local distribution. Here, the dynamical influence of both the…
In this study we refine a CME model presented in an earlier study on the global energetics of solar flares and associated CMEs, and apply it to all (860) GOES M- and X-class flare events observed during the first 7 years (2010-2016) of the…
Physical models with uncertain inputs are commonly represented as parametric partial differential equations (PDEs). That is, PDEs with inputs that are expressed as functions of parameters with an associated probability distribution.…
We present a first-principles-based coronal mass ejection (CME) model suitable for both scientific and operational purposes by combining a global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) solar wind model with a flux rope-driven CME model. Realistic CME…
We report kinematic properties of slow interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) identified by SOHO/LASCO, interplanetary scintillation, and in-situ observations, and propose a modified equation for the ICME motion. We identify seven…
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) drive space weather activity at Earth and throughout the solar system. Current CME-related space weather predictions rely on information reconstructed from coronagraphs, sometimes from only a single viewpoint,…
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are highly dynamic events originating in the solar atmosphere, that show a wide range of kinematic properties and are the major drivers of the space weather. The angular width of the CMEs is a crucial parameter…