Related papers: Parameter Distributions for the Drag-Based Modelin…
The Effective Acceleration Model (EAM) predicts the Time-of-Arrival (ToA) of the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) driven shock and the average speed within the sheath at 1 AU. The model is based on the assumption that the ambient solar wind…
On 7 January 2014 an X1.2 flare and CME with a radial speed $\approx$2500 km s$^{-1}$ was observed from near an active region close to disk center. This led many forecasters to estimate a rapid arrival at Earth ($\approx$36 hours) and…
Both observation and theory reveal a close relationship between the kinematics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the thermal energy release traced by the related soft X-ray (SXR) emission. The major problem of empirical studies of this…
Geometric modelling of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) is a widely used tool for assessing their kinematic evolution. Furthermore, techniques based on geometric modelling, such as ELEvoHI, are being developed into forecast tools for space…
This study quantifies how uncertainty in physically meaningful coronal mass ejection (CME) and solar-wind inputs propagates into forecast-relevant diagnostics from eruption to 1 AU. We use a semi-analytic erupting flux rope (EFR) model to…
Ensemble modeling of CMEs provides a probabilistic forecast of CME arrival time which includes an estimation of arrival time uncertainty from the spread and distribution of predictions and forecast confidence in the likelihood of CME…
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are key drivers of space weather activity but most predictions have been limited to the expected arrival time of a CME, rather than the internal properties that affect the severity of an impact. Many…
The Time-of-Arrival (ToA) of coronal mass ejections (CME) at Earth is a key parameter due to the space weather phenomena associated with the CME arrival, such as intense geomagnetic storms. Despite the incremental use of new instrumentation…
A study of the kinematics and arrival times of CMEs at Earth, derived from time-elongation maps (J-maps) constructed from STEREO/Heliospheric Imager (HI) observations, provides an opportunity to understand the heliospheric evolution of CMEs…
The Sun constantly releases radiation and plasma into the heliosphere. Sporadically, the Sun launches solar eruptions such as flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). CMEs carry away a huge amount of mass and magnetic flux with them. An…
IIn recent years, there has been a growing interest in applying data assimilation (DA) methods, originally designed for state estimation, to the model selection problem. In this setting, Carrassi et al. (2017) introduced the contextual…
Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed are important for a wide range of applications, ranging from operational decision making in connection with wind power generation to storm warnings, ship routing and aviation. We present a statistical…
We investigate the Sun-Earth dynamics of a set of 38 well-observed Coronal Mass Ejections(CMEs) using data from the STEREO, SOHO missions and WIND instrument. We seek to quantify the relative contributions of Lorentz force and aerodynamic…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the main driver of Space Weather. Therefore, a precise forecasting of their likely geo-effectiveness relies on an accurate tracking of their morphological and kinematical evolution throughout the…
The free energy that is dissipated in a magnetic reconnection process of a solar flare, generally accompanied by a coronal mass ejection (CME), has been considered as the ultimate energy source of the global energy budget of solar flares in…
The forces acting on solar Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) in the interplanetary medium have been evaluated so far in terms of an empirical drag coefficient $C_{\rm D} \sim 1$ that quantifies the role of the aerodynamic drag experienced by a…
The arrival time prediction of Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is an area of active research. Many methods with varying levels of complexity have been developed to predict CME arrival. However, the mean absolute error (MAE) of predictions…
In an effort to develop computational tools for predicting radiation hazards from solar energetic particles (SEPs), we have created a data-driven physics-based particle transport model to calculate the injection, acceleration and…
Weather forecasting has seen a shift in methods from numerical simulations to data-driven systems. While initial research in the area focused on deterministic forecasting, recent works have used diffusion models to produce skillful ensemble…
We present a method for tracking and predicting the propagation and evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using the imagers on the STEREO and SOHO satellites. By empirically modeling the material between the inner core and leading edge…