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Related papers: Predicting Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

200 papers

The North Atlantic Ocean circulation, fuelled by winds and surface buoyancy fluxes, carries 1.25 PettaWatts of heat poleward in the subtropics, and helps in regulating global weather and climate patterns. Here, we assess the relative…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-06-03 Dhruv Bhagtani , Andrew McC. Hogg , Ryan M. Holmes , Navid C. Constantinou

Due to climate change, heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, with western Europe experiencing the strongest trends in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Part of the temperature trends are caused by circulation changes, which…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-22 Tamara Happé , Jasper Wijnands , Paolo Scussolini , Peter Pfleiderer , Dim Coumou

We propose a non-steady state model of the global temperature change. The model describes Earth's surface temperature dynamics under main climate forcing. The equations were derived from basic physical relationships and detailed assessment…

Many papers and monographs were written about the modeling the Earth climate and its variability. However there is still an obvious need for a module that presents the fundamentals of climate modeling to students at the undergraduate level.…

Popular Physics · Physics 2019-09-04 Mayer Humi

The increasing worldwide population leads to a constant increase in energy and food demand. These increasing demands have led to fierce land-use conflicts as we need agricultural land for food production while striving towards renewable…

We formulate and study a low-order nonlinear coupled ocean-atmosphere model with an emphasis on the impact of radiative and heat fluxes and of the frictional coupling between the two components. This model version extends a previous…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2015-08-28 Stéphane Vannitsem , Jonathan Demaeyer , Lesley De Cruz , Michael Ghil

Significant salinity anomalies have been observed in the Arctic Ocean surface layer during the last decade. Using gridded data of winter salinity in the upper 50 m layer of the Arctic Ocean for the period 1950-1993 and 2007-2012, we…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2014-09-09 Ekaterina A. Chernyavskaya , Ivan Sudakov , Kenneth M. Golden , Leonid A. Timokhov

During the last ice age there were several quasi-periodic abrupt warming events. The climatic effects of the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events were felt globally, although the North Atlantic experienced the largest and most abrupt…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2015-03-13 Raj Saha

In a recent article by Scafetta, 2010, the author investigates whether or not the decadal and multi-decadal climate oscillations have an astronomical origin. In particular, the author note that several global surface temperature records,…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2011-05-20 S. Sello

Temperature uncertainty models for land and sea surfaces can be developed based on statistical methods. In this paper, we developed a novel time series temperature uncertainty model which is the Auto-regressive Moving Average (ARMA)(1, 1)…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-06 Mahmud Hasan , Gauree Wathodkar , Mathias Muia

We investigate the effects of temperature variance, grain size variation, flow regimes, and the use of Support Vector Machines (SVMs) in avalanche studies. The temperature variance experiments involved ice single crystals and polycrystals,…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-10-10 Aditya Sharma

We present a model for variations in atmospheric temperature from time scales of one day to one million years based on a stochastic diffusion (random walk) model of the turbulent transport of heat energy vertically in a coupled…

ao-sci · Physics 2008-02-03 Jon D. Pelletier

Atmospheric flows exhibit long-range spatiotemporal correlations manifested as the fractal geometry to the global cloud cover pattern concomitant with inverse power law form for power spectra of temporal fluctuations on all space-time…

chao-dyn · Physics 2009-10-31 A. M. Selvam , S. Fadnavis

Physics-based atmosphere-land models with prescribed sea surface temperature have notable successes but also biases in their ability to represent atmospheric variability compared to observations. Recently, AI emulators and hybrid models…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-22 Ian Baxter , Hamid Pahlavan , Pedram Hassanzadeh , Katharine Rucker , Tiffany Shaw

Large variations of European storm activity at decadal and longer timescales have been found to be driven by major tropical volcanic eruptions, internal climate variability and anthropogenic aerosols (AA). The insurance industry have the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-11 Stephen Cusack

Weather conditions can drastically alter the state of crops and rangelands, and in turn, impact the incomes and food security of individuals worldwide. Satellite-based remote sensing offers an effective way to monitor vegetation and climate…

Applications · Statistics 2026-01-26 Erika McPhillips , Hyeongseong Lee , Xiangyu Xie , Kathy Baylis , Chris Funk , Mengyang Gu

Estimating climate effects on future ocean storm severity is plagued by large uncertainties, yet for safe design and operation of offshore structures, best possible estimates of climate effects are required given available data. We explore…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-12-22 Kevin Ewans , Philip Jonathan

Past efforts to interrogate the mantle's contribution to Earth's topography suffer from inadequate in-situ measurements of true bathymetry and the involvement of an empirical plate model whose presumed lithospheric density profile…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-06-27 Adam J. Stewart , Yanchong Li , Zebin Cao , Lijun Liu

Elucidating the statistical properties of extreme meteo-climatic events and capturing the physical processes responsible for their occurrence are key steps for improving our understanding of climate variability and climate change and for…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-01-18 Valerio Lucarini , Vera Melinda Galfi , Gabriele Messori , Jacopo Riboldi

In this study we consider the problem of detecting and quantifying changes in the distribution of the annual maximum daily maximum temperature (TXx) in a large gridded data set of European daily temperature during the years 1950-2018.…

Applications · Statistics 2022-01-03 Graeme Auld , Gabriele Hegerl , Ioannis Papastathopoulos