Related papers: Predicting Atlantic Multidecadal Variability
In the present work, we test the predictions of the AWSoM model, a global extended-MHD model capable of calculating the propagation and turbulent dissipation of Alfv\'en waves in any magnetic topology, against high resolution spectra of the…
Accurately predicting sea-surface temperature weeks to months into the future is an important step toward long term weather forecasting. Standard atmosphere-ocean coupled numerical models provide accurate sea-surface forecasts on the scale…
Accurate prediction of global sea surface temperature at sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is critical for drought and flood forecasting, as well as for improving disaster preparedness in human society. Government departments or…
Both global, intermediate and local scales of Climate Change have been studied extensively, but a unified diagnostic framework for examining all spatial scales concurrently has remained elusive. Here we present a new tool-set using…
Climate tipping points are critical thresholds in Earth's climate system where a small change can cause abrupt and potentially irreversible shifts towards a new state. Tipping points in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)…
Producing high-quality forecasts of key climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, on subseasonal time scales has long been a gap in operational forecasting. This study explores an application of machine learning (ML) models…
Here we evaluate the sea ice, surface air temperature, and sea-level-pressure from 31 of the models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for their biases, trends, and variability, and compare them to the CMIP5…
Understanding how fast atmospheric variability shapes slow climate variability and sensitivity remains a central challenge in Earth-system science. Recent advances in machine-learned (ML) atmospheric models have demonstrated remarkable…
This paper presents the first estimate of the seasonal cycle of ocean and sea ice net heat and freshwater (FW) fluxes around the boundary of the Arctic Ocean. The ocean transports are estimated primarily using 138 moored instruments…
This paper presents a global air and sea temperature anomalies analysis based upon a combination of the wavelet multiresolution analysis and the scaling analysis methods of a time series. The wavelet multiresolution analysis decomposes the…
Blocking events are an important cause of extreme weather, especially long-lasting blocking events that trap weather systems in place. The duration of blocking events is, however, underestimated in climate models. Explainable Artificial…
Sea level change, one of the most dire impacts of anthropogenic global warming, will affect a large amount of the world's population. However, sea level change is not uniform in time and space, and the skill of conventional prediction…
We introduce CAMulator version 1, an auto-regressive machine-learned (ML) emulator of the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) that simulates the next atmospheric state given the prescribed sea surface temperatures and incoming solar…
(abridged) The calculation of the thermal stratification in the superadiabatic layers of stellar models with convective envelopes is a long standing problem of stellar astrophysics, and has a major impact on predicted observational…
Arctic coastal morphology is governed by multiple factors, many of which are affected by climatological changes. As the season length for shorefast ice decreases and temperatures warm permafrost soils, coastlines are more susceptible to…
The ocean wave distribution in a specific region of space and time is described by its sea state. Knowledge about the sea states a ship encounters on a journey can be used to assess various parameters of risk and wear associated with the…
Mesoscale convective systems MCSs play a central role in tropical rainfall and are closely linked to extreme precipitation and large scale variability. However, a quantitative understanding of their environmental controls remains…
Understanding future changes in temperature variability and extremes is an important scientific challenge with societal impacts. Here the responses of daily near-surface temperature distributions to climate warming is explored using an…
If climate stationarity is dead, how should engineering design standards be modified to account for potential changes in extreme precipitation? Many standards rely on precipitation intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves provided in…
Decadal temperature prediction provides crucial information for quantifying the expected effects of future climate changes and thus informs strategic planning and decision-making in various domains. However, such long-term predictions are…