Related papers: Predicting Atlantic Multidecadal Variability
This paper explores the potential of a hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning (ML) with conventional physics-based modeling for weather prediction beyond the medium range. It extends the work of Arcomano et al. (2022),…
We analyze European temperature variability from station data with the method of detrended fluctuation analysis. This method is known to give a scaling exponent indicating long range correlations in time for temperature anomalies. However,…
Tropical cyclones (TCs), driven by heat exchange between the air and sea, pose a substantial risk to many communities around the world. Accurate characterization of the subsurface ocean thermal response to TC passage is crucial for accurate…
The rapid decline of Arctic sea ice resulting from anthropogenic climate change poses significant risks to indigenous communities, ecosystems, and the global climate system. This situation emphasizes the immediate necessity for precise…
The unusually warm sea surface temperature events known as marine heatwaves (MHWs) have a profound impact on marine ecosystems. Accurate prediction of extreme MHWs has significant scientific and financial worth. However, existing methods…
The Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) is a system of surface and deep currents encompassing all ocean basins, crucial to the Earth's climate. Detecting potential climatic changes in the MOC first requires a careful characterisation…
Predicting Arctic sea ice extent is a notoriously difficult forecasting problem, even for lead times as short as one month. Motivated by Arctic intraannual variability phenomena such as reemergence of sea surface temperature and sea ice…
Bayesian hierarchical models are proposed for modeling tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage potential in the Atlantic basin. We model the joint probability distribution of tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage…
Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of the climate and economy aim to analyze the impact and efficacy of policies that aim to control climate change, such as carbon taxes and subsidies. A major characteristic of IAMs is that their…
This study investigates the climatic index time series over the most recent 80 years, using monthly mean values from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and monthly solar activity represented by…
Arctic amplification has altered the climate patterns both regionally and globally, resulting in more frequent and more intense extreme weather events in the past few decades. The essential part of Arctic amplification is the unprecedented…
Atlantic Canada faces significant hurricane threats from damaging winds and coastal flooding that are projected to intensify under climate change. This study adopts a two-stage framework. First, the evolution of wind and coastal-flood…
Spatiotemporal variations in thunderstorm occurrence frequency are considered here using an environmental dataset derived from ERA5 reanalysis data. Interannual variability in the thunderstorm environments is examined for the period…
The joint extremal spatial dependence of wind speed and significant wave height in the North East Atlantic is quantified using Metop satellite scatterometer and hindcast observations for the period 2007-2018, and a multivariate spatial…
Extratropical cyclones are large-scale weather systems which are often the source of extreme weather events in Northern Europe, often leading to mass infrastructural damage and casualties. Such systems create a local vorticity maxima which…
Complex ocean systems such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current play key roles in the climate, and current models predict shifts in their strength and area under climate change. However, the physical processes underlying these changes are…
An impact of climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events. However, confidently predicting the likelihood of extreme precipitation at seasonal scales remains an outstanding challenge. Here, we…
Satellite images have become increasingly valuable for modelling regional climate change effects. Earth surface forecasting represents one such task that integrates satellite images with meteorological data to capture the joint evolution of…
Ensembles of climate models are commonly used to improve climate predictions and assess the uncertainties associated with them. Weighting the models according to their performances holds the promise of further improving their predictions.…