Related papers: Predicting Atlantic Multidecadal Variability
Tipping to an undesired state in the climate when a control parameter slowly approaches a critical value is a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions rely on detecting early warning signals (EWSs) in…
We are building a hurricane number prediction scheme that relies, in part, on statistical modelling of the empirical relationship between Atlantic sea surface temperatures and landfalling hurricane numbers. We test out a number of simple…
One possible method for the year-ahead prediction of hurricane numbers would be to make a year-ahead prediction of sea surface temperature (SST), and then to apply relationships that link SST to hurricane numbers. As a first step towards…
We use the Global Historical Climatology Network--daily database to calculate trends in sea-level atmospheric pressures, their variance and the variance of their day-to-day differences in nine regions of the world. Changes in pressure…
There is strong evidence that the present-day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is in a bi-stable regime and hence it is important to determine probabilities and pathways for noise-induced transitions between its…
The renewable energies prediction and particularly global radiation forecasting is a challenge studied by a growing number of research teams. This paper proposes an original technique to model the insolation time series based on combining…
Machine learning models for the global atmosphere that are capable of producing stable, multi-year simulations of Earth's climate have recently been developed. However, the ability of these ML models to generalize beyond the training…
Antarctic sea ice has undergone unprecedented changes in recent years, raising questions about how this key geophysical system is responding to climate change. Decades of slow expansion were replaced by a precipitous decline in 2014-2017, a…
We study temporally persistent and spatially extended extreme events of temperature anomalies, i.e. heat waves and cold spells, using large deviation theory. To this end, we consider a simplified yet Earth-like general circulation model of…
Predictions on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales--ranging from two weeks to two month--are crucial for early warning systems but remain challenging owing to chaos in the climate system. Teleconnections, such as the stratospheric…
Atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) extracted from satellite imagery are the only wind observations with good global coverage. They are important features for feeding numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Several Bayesian models have…
How strong are quantitative contributions of the key natural modes of climate variability and the anthropogenic factor characterized by the changes of the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to the trends of the surface…
Ditlevsen and Ditlevsen [Nature Communications, 2023] (DD23 hereafter) propose a statistical framework to estimate the timing of a potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) based on extrapolating…
Since model bias and associated initialization shock are serious shortcomings that reduce prediction skills in state-of-the-art decadal climate prediction efforts, we pursue a complementary machine-learning-based approach to climate…
The warming trend of the last decades is now so strong that it is discernible in local temperature observations. This opens the possibility to compare the trend to the warming predicted by comprehensive climate models (GCMs), which up to…
Sea ice cover in the Arctic and Antarctic is an important indicator of changes in the climate, with important environmental, economic and security consequences. The complexity of the spatio-temporal dynamics of sea ice makes it difficult to…
Operational weather forecasting models have advanced for decades on both the explicit numerical solvers and the empirical physical parameterization schemes. However, the involved high computational costs and uncertainties in these existing…
Spatiotemporal projections in marine science are essential for understanding ocean systems and their impact on Earth's climate. However, existing AI-based and statistics-based inversion methods face challenges in leveraging ocean data,…
The Earth has warmed in the last century with the most rapid warming occurring near the surface in the arctic. This enhanced surface warming in the Arctic is partly because the extra heat is trapped in a thin layer of air near the surface…
The physics of planetary climate features a variety of complex systems that are challenging to model as they feature turbulent flows. A key example is the heat flux from the upper ocean to the underside of sea ice which provides a key…