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We establish the asymptotic validity of frequency-domain inference for stationary multivariate Hawkes processes under mild conditions, bridging the gap between theory and application. By developing upper-bounds on the reduced cumulant…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-14 Yifu Tang , Conor Kresin , Boris Baeumer , Ting Wang

This paper first strictly proved that the growth of the second moment of a large class of Gaussian processes is not greater than power function and the covariance matrix is strictly positive definite. Under these two conditions, the maximum…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-21 Shifei Luo

In this paper we obtain non-uniform Berry-Esseen bounds for normal approximations by the Malliavin-Stein method. The techniques rely on a detailed analysis of the solutions of Stein's equations and will be applied to functionals of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-17 Marius Butzek , Peter Eichelsbacher

The Hawkes process, a self-exciting point process, has a wide range of applications in modeling earthquakes, social networks and stock markets. The established estimation process requires that researchers have access to the exact time…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-15 Lingxiao Zhou , Georgia Papadogeorgou

We combine the notion of free Stein kernel and the free Malliavin calculus to provide quantitative bounds under the free (quadratic) Wasserstein distance in the multivariate semicircular approximations for self-adjoint vector-valued…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-11-15 Charles-Philippe Diez

In this paper we consider some non linear Hawkes processes with signed reproduction function (or memory kernel) thus exhibiting both self-excitation and inhibition. We provide a Law of Large Numbers, a Central Limit Theorem and large…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-06 Patrick Cattiaux , Laetitia Colombani , Manon Costa

In this paper we study rough differential equations driven by Gaussian rough paths from the viewpoint of Malliavin calculus. Under mild assumptions on coefficient vector fields and underlying Gaussian processes, we prove that solutions at a…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-06-09 Yuzuru Inahama

Pricing of the lookback options using the Clark-Ocone formula for the underlying assets driven by stochastic L\'evy processes requires computing the Malliavin derivatives of their maximum or minimum on the Wiener-Poisson space and their…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-27 Mahdieh Tahmasebi

We revisit the problem of sampling from a target distribution that has a smooth strongly log-concave density everywhere in $\mathbb R^p$. In this context, if no additional density information is available, the randomized midpoint…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-19 Lu Yu , Avetik Karagulyan , Arnak Dalalyan

In classical Hawkes process, the baseline intensity and triggering kernel are assumed to be a constant and parametric function respectively, which limits the model flexibility. To generalize it, we present a fully Bayesian nonparametric…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-30 Feng Zhou , Zhidong Li , Xuhui Fan , Yang Wang , Arcot Sowmya , Fang Chen

On August 20, 2025, GPT-5 was reported to have solved an open problem in convex optimization. Motivated by this episode, we conducted a controlled experiment in the Malliavin--Stein framework for central limit theorems. Our objective was to…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-04 Charles-Philippe Diez , Luis da Maia , Ivan Nourdin

Let $F$ be a distribution function on $\mathbb{R}$ with $F(0) = 0 $ and density $f$. Let $\tilde{F}$ be the distribution function of $X_1 - X_2$, $X_i\sim F,\, i=1,2,\text{ iid}$. We show that for a critical Hawkes process with displacement…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-06-14 Matthias Kirchner

Sequential optimization methods are often confronted with the curse of dimensionality in high-dimensional spaces. Current approaches under the Gaussian process framework are still burdened by the computational complexity of tracking…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-08 Zeji Yi , Yunyue Wei , Chu Xin Cheng , Kaibo He , Yanan Sui

We present the first framework for Gaussian-process-modulated Poisson processes when the temporal data appear in the form of panel counts. Panel count data frequently arise when experimental subjects are observed only at discrete time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-13 Hongyi Ding , Young Lee , Issei Sato , Masashi Sugiyama

We derive explicit, closed-form expressions for the cumulant densities of a multivariate, self-exciting Hawkes point process, generalizing a result of Hawkes in his earlier work on the covariance density and Bartlett spectrum of such…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-08 Stojan Jovanović , John Hertz , Stefan Rotter

A unified, Bayesian inference of midplane electron temperature and density profiles using both Thompson scattering (TS) and interferometric data is presented. Beyond the Bayesian nature of the analysis, novel features of the inference are…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2015-06-12 G. T. von Nessi , M. J. Hole

For a difference approximations of multidimensional diffusion, the truncated local limit theorem is proved. Under very mild conditions on the distribution of the difference terms, this theorem provides that the transition probabilities of…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-01-16 Alexey M. Kulik

Multivariate Hawkes processes are commonly used to model streaming networked event data in a wide variety of applications. However, it remains a challenge to extract reliable inference from complex datasets with uncertainty quantification.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-29 Haoyun Wang , Liyan Xie , Alex Cuozzo , Simon Mak , Yao Xie

We develop a novel approach to fusion reactions for syntheses of superheavy elements, which combines the time-dependent Hartree-Fock (TDHF) method with a dynamical diffusion model based on the Langevin equation. In this approach, the…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2019-05-29 K. Sekizawa , K. Hagino

Hawkes process is a simple point process that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, neuroscience, social networks,…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-02 Xuefeng Gao , Lingjiong Zhu