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We combine the method of exchangeable pairs with Stein's method for functional approximation. As a result, we give a general linearity condition under which an abstract Gaussian approximation theorem for stochastic processes holds. We apply…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-10-22 Mikolaj J. Kasprzak

Numerous studies grounded on Hawkes processes have been carried out in many fields including finance, biology and social network. Hawkes processes form a class of selfexciting simple point processes. In this article, we consider a general…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-22 Bartholomé Vieille , Rachid Senoussi , Samuel Soubeyrand

This work focuses on a self-exciting point process defined by a Hawkes-like intensity and a switching mechanism based on a hidden Markov chain. Previous works in such a setting assume constant intensities between consecutive events. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-07 Timothée Fabre , Ioane Muni Toke

In this paper, we quantitative convergence in $W_2$ for a family of Langevin-like stochastic processes that includes stochastic gradient descent and related gradient-based algorithms. Under certain regularity assumptions, we show that the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-03 Xiang Cheng , Peter L. Bartlett , Michael I. Jordan

We prove the convergence of the law of grid-valued random walks, which can be seen as time-space Markov chains, to the law of a general diffusion process. This includes processes with sticky features, reflecting or absorbing boundaries and…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-15 Alexis Anagnostakis , Antoine Lejay , Denis Villemonais

This paper is a continuation of work arXiv:2006.09583 devoted to establishment of the convergence rate in the strong invariance principle for cumulative processes. We establish optimal rate of convergence for the case when regeneration…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-31 Elena Bashtova , Alexey Shashkin

Motivated by several applications, including neuronal models, we consider the McKean-Vlasov limit for mean-field systems of interacting diffusions with simultaneous jumps. We prove propagation of chaos via a coupling technique that involves…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-04-05 Luisa Andreis , Paolo Dai Pra , Markus Fischer

We consider $\mathbb{R}^d$-valued diffusion processes of type \begin{align*} dX_t\ =\ b(X_t)dt\, +\, dB_t. \end{align*} Assuming a geometric drift condition, we establish contractions of the transitions kernels in Kantorovich ($L^1$…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-10-10 Andreas Eberle , Arnaud Guillin , Raphael Zimmer

Interval-censored data solely records the aggregated counts of events during specific time intervals - such as the number of patients admitted to the hospital or the volume of vehicles passing traffic loop detectors - and not the exact…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-29 Marian-Andrei Rizoiu , Alexander Soen , Shidi Li , Pio Calderon , Leanne Dong , Aditya Krishna Menon , Lexing Xie

In this paper, based on a known formula, we use a simple idea to get a new representation for the density of Malliavin differentiable random variables. This new representation is particularly useful for finding lower bounds for the density.

Probability · Mathematics 2019-12-23 Nguyen Tien Dung

Large deviation for Markov processes can be studied by Hamilton--Jacobi equation techniques. The method of proof involves three steps: First, we apply a nonlinear transform to generators of the Markov processes, and verify that limit of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Jin Feng

We show that the jumps correlation matrix of a multivariate Hawkes process is related to the Hawkes kernel matrix through a system of Wiener-Hopf integral equations. A Wiener-Hopf argument allows one to prove that this system (in which the…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-16 Emmanuel Bacry , Jean-Francois Muzy

We study the obtainment of closed-form formulas for the distribution of the jumps of a doubly-stochastic Poisson process. The problem is approached in two ways. On the one hand, we translate the problem to the computation of multiple…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-01-04 Arturo Valdivia

In this paper, we construct a Malliavin derivative for functionals of square-integrable L\'evy processes and derive a Clark-Ocone formula. The Malliavin derivative is defined via chaos expansions involving stochastic integrals with respect…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-07-26 Jean-François Renaud , Bruno Rémillard

Two popular classes of methods for approximate inference are Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational inference. MCMC tends to be accurate if run for a long enough time, while variational inference tends to give better approximations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-06-21 Justin Domke

We describe a new MCMC method optimized for the sampling of probability measures on Hilbert space which have a density with respect to a Gaussian; such measures arise in the Bayesian approach to inverse problems, and in conditioned…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-04 Michela Ottobre , Natesh S. Pillai , Frank J. Pinski , Andrew M. Stuart

We define an asymptotically normal wavelet-based strongly consistent estimator for the Hurst parameter of any Hermite processes. This estimator is obtained by considering a modified wavelet variation in which coefficients are wisely chosen…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-03-11 Laurent Loosveldt , Ciprian A. Tudor

A novel discretization is presented for forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDE) with differentiable coefficients, simultaneously solving the BSDE and its Malliavin sensitivity problem. The control process is estimated by…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-10-12 Balint Negyesi , Kristoffer Andersson , Cornelis W. Oosterlee

This work proposes a superconvergent hybridizable discontinuous Galerkin (HDG) method for the approximation of the Cauchy formulation of the Stokes equation using same degree of polynomials for the primal and mixed variables. The novel…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-08-16 Matteo Giacomini , Alexandros Karkoulias , Ruben Sevilla , Antonio Huerta

Multivariate point processes are widely applied to model event-type data such as natural disasters, online message exchanges, financial transactions or neuronal spike trains. One very popular point process model in which the probability of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-01-27 Deborah Sulem , Vincent Rivoirard , Judith Rousseau
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