Related papers: SURPRISE! and When to Schedule It
We introduce GuessingGame, a protocol for evaluating large language models (LLMs) as strategic question-askers in open-ended, open-domain settings. A Guesser LLM identifies a hidden object by posing free-form questions to an Oracle without…
Traditional tennis rating systems (e.g., Elo) summarize overall player strength but do not isolate the independent value of serving. Using point-by-point data from Wimbledon and the U.S.\ Open, we develop serve-specific player metrics that…
As the video game market grows larger, it becomes harder to stand out from the crowd. Launching a successful game involves different aspects. But what are they? In this paper, we investigate some aspects of the high-rated games from a…
In forecasting competitions, the traditional mechanism scores the predictions of each contestant against the outcome of each event, and the contestant with the highest total score wins. While it is well-known that this traditional mechanism…
Rating systems play a crucial role in evaluating player skill across competitive environments. The Elo rating system, originally designed for deterministic and information-complete games such as chess, has been widely adopted and modified…
Many popular sports involve matches between two teams or players where each team have the possibility of scoring points throughout the match. While the overall match winner and result is interesting, it conveys little information about the…
Competition is a primary driver of player satisfaction and engagement in multiplayer online games. Traditional matchmaking systems aim at creating matches involving teams of similar aggregated individual skill levels, such as Elo score or…
This paper considers information sharing in a multi-player repeated game. Every round, each player observes a subset of components of a random vector and then takes a control action. The utility earned by each player depends on the full…
This work analyses surprising elections, and attempts to quantify the notion of surprise in elections. A voter is surprised if their estimate of the winner (assumed to be based on a combination of the preferences of their social connections…
In the inference attacks studied in Quantitative Information Flow (QIF), the attacker typically tries to interfere with the system in the attempt to increase its leakage of secret information. The defender, on the other hand, typically…
Lifelong experiences and learned knowledge lead to shared expectations about how common situations tend to unfold. Such knowledge of narrative event flow enables people to weave together a story. However, comparable computational tools to…
Probabilistic properties of tennis scoring systems are examined and compared with best-of-K systems. A model, where each player has his/her own probability of winning his/her service point and which remains invariant for the duration of the…
The present research examines two problems inherent to the creation of crowdsourcing games: how to give feedback when the right answer is not always known by the game and how much time to give players without sacrificing data quality. Taken…
The massive growth of sports videos has resulted in a need for automatic generation of sports highlights that are comparable in quality to the hand-edited highlights produced by broadcasters such as ESPN. Unlike previous works that mostly…
In games with a large number of players where players may have overlapping objectives, the analysis of stable outcomes typically depends on player types. A special case is when a large part of the player population consists of imitation…
Online content platforms commonly use engagement-based optimization when making recommendations. This encourages content creators to invest in quality, but also rewards gaming tricks such as clickbait. To understand the total impact on the…
Time series data measure how environments change over time and drive decision-making in critical domains like finance and healthcare. A common goal in analyzing time series data is to understand the underlying events that cause the observed…
We propose a statistical framework for quantifying the importance of single events that do not provide intermediate rewards but offer implicit incentives through the reward structure at the end of a multi-event contest. Applying the…
An unsupervised online streaming model is considered where samples arrive in an online fashion over $T$ slots. There are $M$ classifiers, whose confusion matrices are unknown a priori. In each slot, at most one sample can be labeled by any…
This paper presents an empirical investigation of the relation between decision speed and decision quality for a real-world setting of cognitively-demanding decisions in which the timing of decisions is endogenous: professional chess.…