Related papers: School reopening should be guided by solid evidenc…
In this work, we address the connection between population density centers in urban areas, and the nature of human flows between such centers, in shaping the vulnerability to the onset of contagious diseases. A study of 163 cities, chosen…
This note describes a simple score to indicate the effectiveness of mitigation against infections of COVID-19 as observed by new case counts. The score includes normalization, making comparisons across jurisdictions possible. The smoothing…
We provide an insight into the open data resources pertinent to the study of the spread of Covid-19 pandemic and its control. We identify the variables required to analyze fundamental aspects like seasonal behaviour, regional mortality…
At the end of 2020, policy responses to the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak have been shaken by the emergence of virus variants. The emergence of these more contagious, more severe, or even vaccine-resistant strains have challenged worldwide policy…
To date, the only effective means to respond to the spreading of COVID-19 pandemic are non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which entail policies to reduce social activity and mobility restrictions. Quantifying their effect is…
Major interventions have been introduced worldwide to slow down the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Large-scale lockdowns of human movements are effective in reducing the spread, but they come at a cost of significantly limited societal…
Background: Northern Italy was one of the most impacted areas by COVID. It is now widely assumed that the virus was silently spreading for at least 2 weeks before the first patient was identified. During this silent phase, and in the…
Computational models for the simulation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic evolution would be extremely useful to support authorities in designing healthcare policies and lockdown measures to…
Mobility data at EU scale can help understand the dynamics of the pandemic and possibly limit the impact of future waves. Still, since a reliable and consistent method to measure the evolution of contagion at international level is missing,…
This paper is concerned with the design of intermittent non-pharmaceutical strategies to mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic exploiting network epidemiological models. Specifically, by studying a variational equation for the…
Understanding collective mobility patterns is crucial to plan the restart of production and economic activities, which are currently put in stand-by to fight the diffusion of the epidemics. In this report, we use mobile phone data to infer…
We give some numerical observations on the total number of infected by the SARS-CoV-2 in Italy. The analysis is based on a tanh formula involving two parameters. A polynomial correlation between the parameters gives an upper bound for the…
This paper repurposes the classic insight from network theory that long-distance connections drive disease propagation into a strategy for controlling a second wave of Covid-19. We simulate a scenario in which a lockdown is first imposed on…
A pipeline to evaluate the evolution of viral dynamics based on a new model-driven approach has been developed in the present study. The proposed methods exploit real data and the multiscale structure of the infection dynamics to provide…
By equipping a previously reported dynamic causal model of COVID-19 with an isolation state, we modelled the effects of self-isolation consequent on tracking and tracing. Specifically, we included a quarantine or isolation state occupied by…
A second wave pandemic constitutes an imminent threat to society, with a potentially immense toll in terms of human lives and a devastating economic impact. We employ the epidemic renormalisation group approach to pandemics, together with…
Socioeconomic inequalities significantly influence infectious disease outcomes, as seen with COVID-19, but the pathways through which socioeconomic conditions affect transmission dynamics remain unclear. To address this, we conducted a…
We have developed a globally applicable diagnostic Covid-19 model by augmenting the classical SIR epidemiological model with a neural network module. Our model does not rely upon previous epidemics like SARS/MERS and all parameters are…
The COVID-19 pandemic considerably affects public health systems around the world. The lack of knowledge about the virus, the extension of this phenomenon, and the speed of the evolution of the infection are all factors that highlight the…
The success of public health policies aimed at curtailing the COVID-19 pandemic have relied on large-scale and protracted compliance by the public. A series of studies have recently argued that previous voting patterns are important…