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The mitigation of an infectious disease spreading has recently gained considerable attention from the research community. It may be obtained by adopting sanitary measurements social rules, together with an extensive vaccination campaign.…
There is a continuing debate on relative benefits of various mitigation and suppression strategies aimed to control the spread of COVID-19. Here we report the results of agent-based modelling using a fine-grained computational simulation of…
The sudden onset of the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has resulted in tremendous loss of human life and economy in more than 210 countries and territories around the world. While self-protections such as wearing mask, sheltering in…
We model further development of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK given the current data and assuming different scenarios of handling the epidemic. In this research, we further extend the stochastic model suggested in \cite{us} and…
The control of Covid 19 epidemics by public health policy in Italy during the first and the second epidemic waves has been driven by using reproductive number Rt(t) to identify the supercritical (percolative), the subcritical (arrested),…
The novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, and the disease it causes, COVID-19 was declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020 by the World Health Organization. Since then, the disease has spread all over the world, with the United States becoming the…
In this letter we study the temporal evolution of the Sars-Cov-2 in Italy. The time window of the real data is between February 24 and March 25. After we upgrade the data until April 1.We perform the analysis with 4 different model and we…
We analyzed 5,484 close contacts of COVID-19 cases from Italy, all of them tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection. We found an infection fatality ratio of 2.2% (95%CI 1.69-2.81%) and identified male sex, age >70 years, cardiovascular…
The response of many governments to the COVID-19 pandemic has involved measures to control within- and between-household transmission, providing motivation to improve understanding of the absolute and relative risks in these contexts. Here,…
When considering airborne epidemic spreading in social systems, a natural connection arises between mobility and epidemic contacts. As individuals travel, possibilities to encounter new people either at the final destination or during the…
Understanding the spread of SARS-CoV-2 has been one of the most pressing problems of the recent past. Network models present a potent approach to studying such spreading phenomena because of their ability to represent complex social…
The rapid spread of COVID-19 infections on a global level has highlighted the need for accurate, transparent and timely information regarding collective mobility patterns to inform de-escalation strategies as well as to provide forecasting…
Elections are crucial for legitimating modern democracies, and giving all candidates the possibility to run a proper electoral campaign is necessary for elections' success in providing such legitimization. Yet, during a pandemic, the risk…
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, has been declared a pandemic by the WHO. The structures of social contact critically determine the spread of the infection and, in the absence of vaccines, the control of these structures…
As Europe is experiencing a second violent CoVid-19 storm, with the PCR-based testing system deteriorating due to the high volumes of people to be tested daily, there is a general reconsideration of the mathematical theories at the basis of…
We employ methods largely exploited in Physics, in the analysis of the evolution of dynamical systems, to study the pattern of the Covid-19 infection in Italy. The techniques we employ are based on the use of logistic function and of its…
In winter of 2020, SARS-CoV-2 emerged as a global threat, impacting not only health but also financial and political stability. To address the societal need for monitoring the spread of SARS-CoV-2, many existing diagnostic technologies were…
We propose a stochastic SIR model, specified as a system of stochastic differential equations, to analyse the data of the Italian COVID-19 epidemic, taking also into account the under-detection of infected and recovered individuals in the…
The Covid-19 virus has been one of the most discussed topics on social networks in 2020 and 2021 and has affected the classic educational paradigm, worldwide. In this research, many tweets related to the Covid-19 virus and education are…
I propose novel partial identification bounds on infection prevalence from information on test rate and test yield. The approach utilizes user-specified bounds on (i) test accuracy and (ii) the extent to which tests are targeted, formalized…