Related papers: Population-scale testing can suppress the spread o…
The efficacy of an intervention can be assessed by randomizing patients to different diagnostic tests instead of directly to an intervention and control. This principle is applied by allocating individuals to intervention if the test result…
We present a simple technique to compare the development of the Covid-19 epidemic in different regions, based only on the time series of confirmed cases. Weekly new infections, taken for every day, are interpreted as infection potential of…
The main aim of the work is to present a general class of two time scales discrete-time epidemic models. In the proposed framework the disease dynamics is considered to act on a slower time scale than a second different process that could…
We study the spreading of an infection within an SIS epidemiological model on a network. Susceptible agents are given the opportunity of breaking their links with infected agents. Broken links are either permanently removed or reconnected…
Serology testing can identify past infection by quantifying the immune response of an infected individual providing important public health guidance. Individual immune responses are time-dependent, which is reflected in antibody…
We consider two closely related problems: anomaly detection in sensor networks and testing for infections in human populations. In both problems, we have $n$ nodes (sensors, humans), and each node exhibits an event of interest (anomaly,…
A key parameter in models for the spread of infectious diseases is the basic reproduction number $R_0$, which is the expected number of secondary cases a typical infected primary case infects during its infectious period in a large mostly…
Suppressing SARS-CoV-2 will likely require the rapid identification and isolation of infected individuals, on an ongoing basis. RT-PCR (reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction) tests are accurate but costly, making regular testing…
Our chances to halt epidemic outbreaks rely on how accurately we represent the population structure underlying the disease spread. When analyzing global epidemics this force us to consider metapopulation models taking into account intra-…
In this paper, we provide insights on how much testing and social distancing is required to control COVID-19. To this end, we develop a compartmental model that accounts for key aspects of the disease: 1) incubation time, 2) age-dependent…
We present a local spread model of disease transmission on a regular network and compare different control options ranging from treating the whole population to local control in a well-defined neighborhood of an infectious individual.…
Gathering observational data for medical decision-making often involves uncertainties arising from both type I (false positive)and type II (false negative) errors. In this work, we develop a statistical model to study how medical…
Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number…
We present two epidemiological models, which extend the classical SEIR model by accounting for the effect of indiscriminate quarantining, isolation of infected individuals based on testing and the presence of asymptomatic individuals. Given…
The experience of Singapur and South Korea makes it clear that under certain circumstances massive testing is an effective way for containing the advance of the COVID-19. In this paper, we propose a modified SEIR model which takes into…
We model an epidemic where the per-person infectiousness in a network of geographic localities changes with the total number of active cases. This would happen as people adopt more stringent non-pharmaceutical precautions when the…
In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…
In the context of a pandemic like COVID-19, and until most people are vaccinated, proactive testing and interventions have been proved to be the only means to contain the disease spread. Recent academic work has offered significant evidence…
Quarantine measures are one of the first lines of defense against the spread of infectious diseases. However, maintaining these measures over extended periods can be challenging due to a phenomenon known as quarantine fatigue. In this…
This paper studies if and to which extent COVID-19 epidemics can be controlled by authorities taking decisions on public health measures on the basis of daily reports of swab test results, active cases and total cases. A suitably simplified…