Related papers: Population-scale testing can suppress the spread o…
Epidemics of infectious diseases have accompanied humans for a long time and, depending on the scale, cause various undesirable social and economic consequences. During the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, governments of many countries impose…
Consider a uniformly mixing population which grows as a super-critical linear birth and death process. At some time an infectious disease (of SIR or SEIR type) is introduced by one individual being infected from outside. It is shown that…
Epidemic models are useful tools in the fight against infectious diseases, as they allow policy makers to test and compare various strategies to limit disease transmission while mitigating collateral damage on the economy. Epidemic models…
Viruses constantly undergo mutations with genomic changes. The propagation of variants of viruses is an interesting problem. We perform numerical simulations of the microscopic epidemic model based on network theory for the spread of…
We propose new, optimal methods for analyzing randomized trials, when it is suspected that treatment effects may differ in two predefined subpopulations. Such sub-populations could be defined by a biomarker or risk factor measured at…
We study a multilayer SIR model with two levels of mixing, namely a global level which is uniformly mixing, and a local level with two layers distinguishing household and workplace contacts, respectively. We establish the large population…
Pandemic control measures like lock-down, restrictions on restaurants and gatherings, social-distancing have shown to be effective in curtailing the spread of COVID-19. However, their sustained enforcement has negative economic effects. To…
We analyse a stochastic SIS epidemic amongst a finite population partitioned into households. Since the population is finite, the epidemic will eventually go extinct, i.e., have no more infectives in the population. We study the effects of…
Investigations of a possible connection between population density and the propagation and magnitude of epidemics have so far led to mixed and unconvincing results. There are three reasons for that. (i) Previous studies did not focus on the…
Epidemics occur in all shapes and forms: infections propagating in our sparse sexual networks, rumours and diseases spreading through our much denser social interactions, or viruses circulating on the Internet. With the advent of large…
The spreading of virus infection is here simulated over artificial human networks. Here, the real-space urban life of people is modeled as a scale-free network with constraints. A scale-free network has been adopted for modeling on-line…
A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings…
The decision of whether or not to vaccinate is a complex one. It involves the contribution both to a social good -- herd immunity -- and to one's own well being. It is informed by social influence, personal experience, education, and mass…
In this paper, we introduce a flexible and widely applicable nonparametric entropy-based testing procedure that can be used to assess the validity of simple hypotheses about a specific parametric population distribution. The testing…
Background: Recently developed techniques to study the spread of infectious diseases through networks make assumptions that the initial proportion infected is infinitesimal and the population behavior is static throughout the epidemic. The…
Urban areas with larger and more connected populations offer an auspicious environment for contagion processes such as the spread of pathogens. Empirical evidence reveals a systematic increase in the rates of certain sexually transmitted…
Once an epidemic outbreak has been effectively contained through non-pharmaceutical interventions, a safe protocol is required for the subsequent release of social distancing restrictions to prevent a disastrous resurgence of the infection.…
A general stochastic model for susceptible -> infective -> recovered (SIR) epidemics in non homogeneous populations is considered. The heterogeneity is a very important aspect here since it allows more realistic but also more complex…
This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…
We study the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of an infectious disease. In this stochastic process, there are two competing mechanism: infection and recovery. Susceptible individuals may contract the disease…