Social distancing and epidemic resurgence in agent-based Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered models
Abstract
Once an epidemic outbreak has been effectively contained through non-pharmaceutical interventions, a safe protocol is required for the subsequent release of social distancing restrictions to prevent a disastrous resurgence of the infection. We report individual-based numerical simulations of stochastic susceptible-infectious-recovered model variants on four distinct spatially organized lattice and network architectures wherein contact and mobility constraints are implemented. We robustly find that the intensity and spatial spread of the epidemic recurrence wave can be limited to a manageable extent provided release of these restrictions is delayed sufficiently (for a duration of at least thrice the time until the peak of the unmitigated outbreak) and long-distance connections are maintained on a low level (limited to less than five percent of the overall connectivity).
Keywords
Cite
@article{arxiv.2006.02552,
title = {Social distancing and epidemic resurgence in agent-based Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered models},
author = {Ruslan I. Mukhamadiarov and Shengfeng Deng and Shannon R. Serrao and Priyanka and Riya Nandi and Louie Hong Yao and Uwe C. Täuber},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2006.02552},
year = {2021}
}
Comments
6 figures in main text, 4 more in supplementary materials; to appear in Scientific Reports