Related papers: Population-scale testing can suppress the spread o…
We consider two approaches to study the spread of infectious diseases within a spatially structured population distributed in social clusters. According whether we consider only the population of infected individuals or both populations of…
Early outbreak detection is a key aspect in the containment of infectious diseases, as it enables the identification and isolation of infected individuals before the disease can spread to a larger population. Instead of detecting unexpected…
The traditional long-term solutions for epidemic control involve eradication or population immunity. Here, we analytically derive the existence of a third viable solution: a stable equilibrium at low case numbers, where…
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is unfolding as a major international crisis whose influence extends to every aspect of our daily lives. Effective testing allows infected individuals to be quarantined, thus reducing the…
We develop a statistical model for the testing of disease prevalence in a population. The model assumes a binary test result, positive or negative, but allows for biases in sample selection and both type I (false positive) and type II…
Intuitively, sampling is likely to be more efficient for prevalence estimation, if the cases (or positives) have a relatively higher representation in the sample than in the population. In case the virus is transmitted via personal…
Up to now, the effects of having heterogeneous networks of contacts have been studied mostly for diseases which are not persistent in time, i.e., for diseases where the infectious period can be considered very small compared to the lifetime…
The generation interval is the time between the infection time of an infected person and the infection time of his or her infector. Probability density functions for generation intervals have been an important input for epidemic models and…
The group testing problem asks for efficient pooling schemes and algorithms that allow to screen moderately large numbers of samples for rare infections. The goal is to accurately identify the infected samples while conducting the least…
In the face of an infectious disease, a key epidemiological measure is the basic reproduction number, which quantifies the average secondary infections caused by a single case in a susceptible population. In practice, the effective…
Sample pooling consists in combining samples from multiple individuals into a single pool that is then tested using a unique test-kit. A positive test means that at least one individual within the pool is infected. Here, we propose an…
The usual problem for group testing is this: For a given number of individuals and a given prevalence, how many tests T* are required to find every infected individual? In real life, however, the problem is usually different: For a given…
Understanding dynamics of an infectious disease helps in designing appropriate strategies for containing its spread in a population. Recent mathematical models are aimed at studying dynamics of some specific types of infectious diseases. In…
The COVID-19 pandemic has plagued the world for months. The U.S. has taken measures to counter it. On a daily basis, newly confirmed cases have been reported. In the early days, these numbers showed an increasing trend. Recently, the…
A number of theoretical models have been developed in recent years modelling epidemic spread in educational settings such as universities to help inform re-opening strategies during the Covid-19 pandemic. However, these studies have had…
Motivated by massive outbreaks of COVID-19 that occurred even in populations with high vaccine uptake, we propose a novel multi-population temporal network model for the spread of recurrent epidemic diseases. We study the effect of human…
We analyze an optimal control version of a simple SIRS epidemiology model. The policy maker can adopt policies to diminish the contact rate between infected and susceptible individuals, at a specific economic cost. The arrival of a vaccine…
Human to human transmissible infectious diseases spread in a population using human interactions as its transmission vector. The early stages of such an outbreak can be modeled by a graph whose edges encode these interactions between…
It has recently become established that the spread of infectious diseases between humans is affected not only by the pathogen itself but also by changes in behavior as the population becomes aware of the epidemic; for example, social…
Studies about epidemic modelling have been conducted since before 19th century. Both deterministic and stochastiic model were used to capture the dynamic of infection in the population. The purpose of this project is to investigate the…