Related papers: Population-scale testing can suppress the spread o…
Risk-driven behavior provides a feedback mechanism through which individuals both shape and are collectively affected by an epidemic. We introduce a general and flexible compartmental model to study the effect of heterogeneity in the…
Simulating the spread of infectious diseases in human communities is critical for predicting the trajectory of an epidemic and verifying various policies to control the devastating impacts of the outbreak. Many existing simulators are based…
In the group testing problem the aim is to identify a small set of $k\sim n^\theta$ infected individuals out of a population size $n$, $0<\theta<1$. We avail ourselves of a test procedure capable of testing groups of individuals, with the…
Infectious pathogens often propagate by superspreading, which focusses onward transmission on disproportionately few infected individuals. At the same time, infector-infectee pairs tend to have more similar transmission potentials than…
Infectious disease transmission in human populations has a complex two-way interaction with changes in host behaviour. It is increasingly recognised that incorporating adaptive behavioural change into epidemic models is important for…
A new method based on the rejection sampling for finding statistical tests is proposed. This method is conceptually intuitive, easy to implement, and applicable for arbitrary dimension. To illustrate its potential applicability, three…
We study a dynamic infection spread model, inspired by the discrete time SIR model, where infections are spread via non-isolated infected individuals. While infection keeps spreading over time, a limited capacity testing is performed at…
Virus transmission from person to person is an emergency event facing the global public. Early detection and isolation of potentially susceptible crowds can effectively control the epidemic of its disease. Existing metrics can not correctly…
One of the critical measures to control infectious diseases is a lockdown. Once past the lockdown stage in many parts of the world, the crucial question now concerns the effects of relaxing the lockdown and finding the best ways to…
Epidemics of infectious diseases posing a serious risk to human health have occurred throughout history. During recent epidemics there has been much debate about policy, including how and when to impose restrictions on behaviour.…
We propose a compartmental model for epidemiology wherein the population is split into groups with either comply or refuse to comply with protocols designed to slow the spread of a disease. Parallel to the disease spread, we assume that…
We introduce a new multiple type I error criterion for clinical trials with multiple populations. Such trials are of interest in precision medicine where the goal is to develop treatments that are targeted to specific sub-populations…
This study focuses on investigating the manner in which a prompt quarantine measure suppresses epidemics in networks. A simple and ideal quarantine measure is considered in which an individual is detected with a probability immediately…
We propose a deterministic compartmental model of infectious disease which considers the test-kits as an important ingredient for the suppression and mitigation of epidemics. A rigorous simulation (with analytical argument) is provided to…
During the COVID-19 pandemic, many institutions such as universities and workplaces implemented testing regimens with every member of some population tested longitudinally, and those testing positive isolated for some time. Although the…
Compartmental models are the most widely used framework for modeling infectious diseases. These models have been continuously refined to incorporate all the realistic mechanisms that can shape the course of an epidemic outbreak. Building on…
The basic and effective reproduction numbers are widely used metrics for characterizing the dynamics of infectious disease epidemics. However, the interpretation of these numbers is based on the assumption of homogeneous mixing and may not…
We study the effects of switching social contacts as a strategy to control epidemic outbreaks. Connections between susceptible and infective individuals can be broken by either individual, and then reconnected to a randomly chosen member of…
The shape of an epidemic wave in simple epidemic models applies to a homogeneous distribution of infected people in the population. In large inhomogeneous systems, at country-scale for instance, the wave shape is similar except for the…
The spread of COVID-19 makes it essential to investigate its prevalence. In such investigation research, as far as we know, the widely-used sampling methods didn't use the information sufficiently about the numbers of the previously…