English

A reproduction rate which perfectly fits Covid-19

Populations and Evolution 2020-06-04 v1 Quantitative Methods

Abstract

We present a simple technique to compare the development of the Covid-19 epidemic in different regions, based only on the time series of confirmed cases. Weekly new infections, taken for every day, are interpreted as infection potential of Covid-19. We derive a robust time-varying reproduction rate for the infection potential, including asymptomatic cases, which does not depend on death rate or testing intensity. It requires few assumptions and shows a more plausible time course than official reproduction rates in several countries.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2006.02342,
  title  = {A reproduction rate which perfectly fits Covid-19},
  author = {Christoph Bandt},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2006.02342},
  year   = {2020}
}