English

A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries

Populations and Evolution 2021-09-29 v2

Abstract

We studied the COVID-19 pandemic evolution in selected African countries. For each country considered, we modeled simultaneously the data of the active, recovered and death cases. In this study, we used a year of data since the first cases were reported. We estimated the time-dependent basic reproduction numbers, R0R_0, and the fractions of infected but unaffected populations, to offer insights into containment and vaccine strategies in African countries. We found that R04R_0\leq 4 at the start of the pandemic but has since fallen to R01R_0 \sim 1. The unaffected fractions of the populations studied vary between 1101-10\% of the recovered cases.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2104.09675,
  title  = {A model of COVID-19 pandemic evolution in African countries},
  author = {Kossi Amouzouvi and Kétévi A. Assamagan and Somiéalo Azote and Simon H. Connell and Jean Baptiste Fankam Fankam and Fenosoa Fanomezana and Aluwani Guga and Cyrille E. Haliya and Toivo S. Mabote and Francisco Fenias Macucule and Dephney Mathebula and Azwinndini Muronga and Kondwani C. C. Mwale and Ann Njeri and Ebode F. Onyie and Laza Rakotondravohitra and George Zimba},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2104.09675},
  year   = {2021}
}

Comments

27 pages, 9 figures and 1 table