Related papers: Towards Understanding the COVID-19 Case Fatality R…

Based on recent studies, some COVID-19 symptoms can persist for months after infection, leading to what is termed long COVID. Factors such as vaccination timing, patient characteristics, and symptoms during the acute phase of infection may…

Factors such as non-uniform definitions of mortality, uncertainty in disease prevalence, and biased sampling complicate the quantification of fatality during an epidemic. Regardless of the employed fatality measure, the infected population…

Vaccination against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a key measure to reduce the probability of getting infected with the disease. Accordingly, this might significantly change an individuals perception and decision-making in daily…

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted significant challenges in the allocation of vital healthcare resources. Existing epidemiological models, specifically compartmental models, aimed to predict the spread of the COVID-19 virus and its impact…

The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most pressing issues at present. A question which is particularly important for governments and policy makers is the following: Does the virus spread in the same way in different countries? Or are there…

Understanding influencing factors is essential for the surveillance and prevention of infectious diseases, and the factors are likely to vary spatially and temporally as the disease progresses. Taking daily cases and deaths data during the…

We propose a new method to estimate the time-varying effective (or instantaneous) reproduction number of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The method is based on a discrete-time stochastic augmented compartmental model that…

As the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has shown profound effects on public health and the economy worldwide, it becomes crucial to assess the impact on the virus transmission and develop effective strategies to address the challenge. A…

We use data from 107 Italian provinces to characterize and compare mortality patterns in the first two COVID-19 epidemic waves, which occurred prior to the introduction of vaccines. We also associate these patterns with mobility, timing of…

To better understand mortality change with age capturing the variability in individuals' rates of aging, we performed comprehensive analysis of statistical properties of a cumulative index of age-associated disorders (deficits), called a…

The current outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an unprecedented example of how fast an infectious disease can spread around the globe (especially in urban areas) and the enormous impact it causes on public health and…

Addressed in this work is the performance of five popular algorithms, which aim at assessing the dissemination dynamics of the COVID-19 disease on the basis of the time series of new confirmed cases. The tests are based on simulated data,…

The worldwide outbreak of COVID-19 has posed a dire threat to the public. Human mobility has changed in various ways over the course of the pandemic. Despite current studies on common mobility metrics, research specifically on…

The reproductive number R_0 (and its value after initial disease emergence R) has long been used to predict the likelihood of pathogen invasion, to gauge the potential severity of an epidemic, and to set policy around interventions.…

In this work, we study the pandemic course in the United States by considering national and state levels data. We propose and compare multiple time-series prediction techniques which incorporate auxiliary variables. One type of approach is…

We sample aggravated cases following age-structured probabilities from confirmed cases and use ICU occupation data to find a subnotification factor. A logistic fit is then employed to project the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic with…

Epidemic forecasts are only as good as the accuracy of epidemic measurements. Is epidemic data, particularly COVID-19 epidemic data, clean and devoid of noise? Common sense implies the negative answer. While we cannot evaluate the…

Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, whether COVID-19 patients with high risks can be recovered or not depends, to a large extent, on how early they will be treated appropriately before irreversible consequences are caused to the patients by…

This study compared the effectiveness of COVID-19 control policies, including wearing masks, and the vaccine rates through proportional infection rate in 28 states of the United States using the eSIR model. The effective rate of policies…

Human society under the COVID-19 pandemic can be viewed as a complex system, the evolution of which is characterized by such the parameters as the number of newly diseased, the number of seriously ill patients, the number of those who were…