Related papers: Towards Understanding the COVID-19 Case Fatality R…
Statistical physicists have long studied systems where the variable of interest spans many orders of magnitude, the classic example is the relaxation times of glassy materials, which are often found to follow power laws. A power-law…
Accurate numbers are needed to understand and predict viral dynamics. Curation of high-quality literature values for the infectious period duration or household secondary attack rate, for example, is especially pressing currently because…
This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, SIRD model, to allow for time varying parameters for real-time measurement of the stance of the COVID-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized…
By fitting a compartment ODE model for Covid-19 propagation to cumulative case and death data for US states and European countries, we find that the case mortality rate seems to have decreased by at least 80% in most of the US and at least…
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an emerging respiratory disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with rapid human-to-human transmission and a high case fatality rate particularly in older…
We analysed publicly available data on place of occurrence of COVID-19 deaths from national statistical agencies in the UK between March 9 2020 and February 28 2021. We introduce a modified Weibull model that describes the deaths due to…
While COVID-19 has resulted in a significant increase in global mortality rates, the impact of the pandemic on mortality from other causes remains uncertain. To gain insight into the broader effects of COVID-19 on various causes of death,…
Forecasting the effect of COVID-19 is essential to design policies that may prepare us to handle the pandemic. Many methods have already been proposed, particularly, to forecast reported cases and deaths at country-level and state-level.…
This report provides a visual examination of Covid-19 case and death data. In particular, it shows that country specific differences can too a large extend be explained by two easily interpreted parameters. Namely, the delay between…
We present a unifying, tractable approach for studying the spread of viruses causing complex diseases requiring to be modeled using a large number of types (e.g., infective stage, clinical state, risk factor class). We show that recording…
This paper introduces new methods to track the offset between two multivariate time series on a continuous basis. We then apply this framework to COVID-19 counts on a state-by-state basis in the United States to determine the progression…
In this paper, we present a new approach for Covid-19 Pandemic spreading simulation based on fuzzy multi agents. The agent parameters consider distribution of the population according to age, and the index of socio-economic fragility.…
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused major disturbance to human life. An important reason behind the widespread social anxiety is the huge uncertainty about the pandemic. A fundamental uncertainty is how many or what percentage of people have…
A multiple objective space-time forecasting approach is presented involving cyclical curve log-regression, and multivariate time series spatial residual correlation analysis. Specifically, the mean quadratic loss function is minimized in…
It is evident that increasing the intensive-care-unit (ICU) capacity and giving priority to admitting and treating younger patients will reduce the number of COVID-19 deaths, but a quantitative assessment of these measures has remained…
Progress of the COVID-19 pandemic was quantified, in the first instance, using the daily number of positive cases recorded by the national public health authorities. Averaged over a seven-day window, the daily incidence of COVID-19 in…
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has progressed with varying degrees of intensity in individual countries, suggesting it is important to analyse factors that vary between them. We study measures of `population-weighted density', which capture…
Background: Providing appropriate care for people suffering from COVID-19, the disease caused by the pandemic SARS-CoV-2 virus is a significant global challenge. Many individuals who become infected have pre-existing conditions that may…
This study aims to statistically assess the effectiveness of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2. It is indispensable to investigate the relationship between Covid-19 deadliness and vaccination in order to study the impact of vaccine in…
The 2019-Novel-Coronavirus (COVID-19) has affected 116 countries (By March 12) and out of more than 118,000 confirmed cases. Understanding the transmission dynamics of the infection in each country which affected on a daily basis and…