Related papers: Towards Understanding the COVID-19 Case Fatality R…
The case fatality ratio (CFR) for COVID-19 is difficult to estimate. One difficulty is due to ignoring or overestimating time delay between reporting and death. We claim that all of these cause large errors and artificial time dependence of…
The relative case fatality rates (CFRs) between groups and countries are key measures of relative risk that guide policy decisions regarding scarce medical resource allocation during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In the middle of an active…
The COVID-19 pandemic has had high mortality rates in the elderly and frail worldwide, particularly in care homes. This is driven by the difficulty of isolating care homes from the wider community, the large population sizes within care…
The Italian government has been one of the most responsive to COVID-19 emergency, through the adoption of quick and increasingly stringent measures to contain the outbreak. Despite this, Italy has suffered a huge human and social cost,…
Since the COVID-19 pandemic first reached the United States, the case fatality rate has fallen precipitously. Several possible explanations have been floated, including greater detection of mild cases due to expanded testing, shifts in age…
The infection fatality rate (IFR) of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is one of the most discussed figures in the context of this pandemic. Using German COVID-19 surveillance data and age-group specific IFR estimates from multiple…
Different ways of calculating mortality ratios during epidemics have yielded very different results, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic. We formulate both a survival probability model and an associated infection…
Knowing the infection fatality ratio (IFR) is of crucial importance for evidence-based epidemic management: for immediate planning; for balancing the life years saved against the life years lost due to the consequences of management; and…
The COVID-19 infection fatality rate (IFR) is the proportion of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 who subsequently die. As COVID-19 disproportionately affects older individuals, age-specific IFR estimates are imperative to facilitate…
In the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic we observed great discrepancies in both infection and mortality rates between countries. Besides the biological and epidemiological factors, a multitude of social and economic criteria also…
The infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 is one of the measures of disease impact that can be of importance for policy making. Here we show that many of the studies on which these estimates are based are scientifically flawed for…
Recent outbreak of COVID-19 has led a rapid global spread around the world. Many countries have implemented timely intensive suppression to minimize the infections, but resulted in high case fatality rate (CFR) due to critical demand of…
SARS-CoV-2 has disrupted the life of billions of people around the world since the first outbreak was officially declared in China at the beginning of 2020. Yet, important questions such as how deadly it is or its degree of spread within…
The Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of COVID-19 is difficult to estimate because the number of infections is unknown and there is a lag between each infection and the potentially subsequent death. We introduce a new approach for estimating…
We point out an instantiation of Simpson's paradox in Covid-19 case fatality rates (CFRs): comparing a large-scale study from China (17 Feb) with early reports from Italy (9 Mar), we find that CFRs are lower in Italy for every age group,…
COVID-19 had a strong and disruptive impact on our society, and yet further analyses on most relevant factors explaining the spread of the pandemic are needed. Interdisciplinary studies linking epidemiological, mobility, environmental, and…
Determinants of COVID-19 clinical severity are commonly assessed by transverse or longitudinal studies of the fatality counts. However, the fatality counts depend both on disease clinical severity and transmissibility, as more infected also…
Multiple studies have suggested the spread of COVID-19 is affected by factors such as climate, BCG vaccinations, pollution and blood type. We perform a joint study of these factors using the death growth rates of 40 regions worldwide with…
Understanding differences in hospital case-fatality rates (HCFRs) of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) may help evaluate its severity and the capacity of the healthcare system to reduce mortality. We examined the variability in HCFRs of…
Bayesian analysis of publicly available time series of cases and fatalities in different geographical regions of India during April 2020 is reported. It is found that the initial apparent rapid growthin infections could be partly due to…