Related papers: Estimating the effective reproduction number for h…
The effective reproduction number is an important descriptor of an infectious disease epidemic. In small populations, ideally we would estimate the effective reproduction number using a Markov Jump Process (MJP) model of the spread of…
Early in an infectious disease outbreak, timely and accurate estimation of the basic reproduction number ($R_0$) and the serial interval (SI) is critical for understanding transmission dynamics and informing public health responses. While…
In a recent work we introduced a novel method to compute the effective reproduction number $R_t$ and we applied it to describe the development of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. The study is based on the number of daily positive swabs as…
Near-real time estimations of the effective reproduction number are among the most important tools to track the progression of a pandemic and to inform policy makers and the general public. However, these estimations rely on reported case…
In this work, the SIR epidemiological model is reformulated so to highlight the important {\em effective reproduction number}, as well as to account for the {\em generation time}, inverse of the {\em incidence rate}, and the {\em infectious…
Addressed in this work is the performance of five popular algorithms, which aim at assessing the dissemination dynamics of the COVID-19 disease on the basis of the time series of new confirmed cases. The tests are based on simulated data,…
The basic reproduction number ($R_0$) is an epidemiological metric that represents the average number of new infections caused by a single infectious individual in a completely susceptible population. The methodology for calculating this…
In this paper we first introduce the general stochastic epidemic model for the spread of infectious diseases. Then we give methods for inferring model parameters such as the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and vaccination coverage $v_c$…
The reproductive number R_0 (and its value after initial disease emergence R) has long been used to predict the likelihood of pathogen invasion, to gauge the potential severity of an epidemic, and to set policy around interventions.…
A primary quantity of interest in the study of infectious diseases is the average number of new infections that an infected person produces. This so-called reproduction number has significant implications for the disease progression. There…
Inference of the reproduction number through time is of vital importance during an epidemic outbreak. Typically, epidemiologists tackle this using observed prevalence or incidence data. However, prevalence and incidence data alone is often…
An age structured mathematical model with time dependent parameters is developed to investigate the dynamics of dengue transmission. Its properties are thoroughly analyzed in the first part of this work, as for example its disease free…
Branching process inspired models are widely used to estimate the effective reproduction number -- a useful summary statistic describing an infectious disease outbreak -- using counts of new cases. Case data is a real-time indicator of…
At the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, a number of non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented in order to reduce transmission, thus leading to multiple phases of transmission. The disease reproduction number $R_t$, a way of…
We propose a new method to estimate the time-varying effective (or instantaneous) reproduction number of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The method is based on a discrete-time stochastic augmented compartmental model that…
Detecting changes in COVID-19 disease transmission over time is a key indicator of epidemic growth.Near real-time monitoring of the pandemic growth is crucial for policy makers and public health officials who need to make informed decisions…
Epidemic models are a valuable tool in the decision making process. Once a mathematical model for an epidemics has been established, the very next step is calculating a mathematical expression for the basic reproductive number, $R_0$, which…
The current survey paper concerns stochastic mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases. It starts with the simplest setting of a homogeneous population in which a transmittable disease spreads during a short outbreak.…
This paper proposes a structural econometric approach to estimating the basic reproduction number ($\mathcal{R}_{0}$) of Covid-19. This approach identifies $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ in a panel regression model by filtering out the effects of…
The effect of diffusion rates on the basic reproduction number of a general compartmental reaction-diffusion epidemic model in a heterogeneous environment is considered. It is shown when the diffusion rates tend to zero, the limit of the…