English

A simple and intuitive method to calculate $R_0$ in complex epidemic models

Populations and Evolution 2022-09-07 v2 Probability

Abstract

Epidemic models are a valuable tool in the decision making process. Once a mathematical model for an epidemics has been established, the very next step is calculating a mathematical expression for the basic reproductive number, R0R_0, which is the average number of infections caused by an individual that is introduced in a population of susceptibles. Finding a mathematical expression for R0R_0 is important because it allows to analyze the effect of the different parameters in the model on R0R_0 so that we can act on them to keep R0<1R_0 < 1, so that the epidemic fades out. In this work we show how to calculate R0R_0 in complicated epidemic models by using only basic concepts of Markov chains.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2208.11509,
  title  = {A simple and intuitive method to calculate $R_0$ in complex epidemic models},
  author = {Carlos Hernandez-Suarez and Osval Montesinos Lopez},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2208.11509},
  year   = {2022}
}

Comments

PDF has 26 pages and contains 13 figures

R2 v1 2026-06-25T01:55:58.255Z