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This paper is concerned with a stochastic model for the spread of an SEIR (susceptible -> exposed (=latent) -> infective -> removed) epidemic with a contact tracing scheme, in which removed individuals may name some of their infectious…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-08 Frank G Ball , Edward S Knock , Philip D O'Neill

We study the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of an infectious disease. In this stochastic process, there are two competing mechanism: infection and recovery. Susceptible individuals may contract the disease…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-05-08 E. Ben-Naim , P. L. Krapivsky

Epidemic threshold is one of the most important features of the epidemic dynamics. Through a lot of numerical simulations in classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) models on various types of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-10-16 Panpan Shu , Wei Wang , Ming Tang , Younghae Do

In this paper we present a model describing Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) type epidemics spreading on a dynamic contact network with random link activation and deletion where link ac- tivation can be locally constrained. We use and…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-05-30 Michael Taylor , Timothy J. Taylor , Istvan Z. Kiss

Emergence of new diseases and elimination of existing diseases is a key public health issue. In mathematical models of epidemics, such phenomena involve the process of infections and recoveries passing through a critical threshold where the…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-23 Svante Janson , Malwina Luczak , Peter Windridge , Thomas House

The study of complex networks sheds light on the relation between the structure and function of complex systems. One remarkable result is the absence of an epidemic threshold in infinite-size scale-free networks, which implies that any…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-10-08 S. Meloni , A. Arenas , Y. Moreno

In this paper we consider a model for the spread of a stochastic SIR (Susceptible $\to$ Infectious $\to$ Recovered) epidemic on a network of individuals described by a random intersection graph. Individuals belong to a random number of…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-29 Frank G. Ball , David J. Sirl , Pieter Trapman

In the study of infectious diseases on networks, researchers calculate epidemic thresholds to help forecast whether a disease will eventually infect a large fraction of a population. Because network structure typically changes in time,…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-08-11 Qinyi Chen , Mason A. Porter

We investigate the spread of diseases, computer viruses or information on complex networks and also immunization strategies to prevent or control the spread. When an entire population cannot be immunized and the effect of immunization is…

Physics and Society · Physics 2011-04-14 Shinji Tanimoto

Current modeling of infectious diseases allows for the study of complex and realistic scenarios that go from the population to the individual level of description. However, most epidemic models assume that the spreading process takes place…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-04-15 Joaquín Sanz , Cheng-Yi Xia , Sandro Meloni , Yamir Moreno

Heterogeneity is an important property of any population experiencing a disease. Here we apply general methods of the theory of heterogeneous populations to the simplest mathematical models in epidemiology. In particular, an SIR…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-02-28 Artem S Novozhilov

Disease and information spread over social and information networks. Understanding the spread phenomena in networks requires paying attention not only to the degree distribution but also to the degree correlation. However, it is considered…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-11-22 Satoru Morita

We define and study an open stochastic SIR (Susceptible -- Infected -- Removed) model on a graph in order to describe the spread of an epidemic on a cattle trade network with epidemiological and demographic dynamics occurring over the same…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-28 Pierre Montagnon

Realistic human contact networks capable of spreading infectious disease, for example studied in social contact surveys, exhibit both significant degree heterogeneity and clustering, both of which greatly affect epidemic dynamics. To…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-10-16 A. Bishop , I. Z. Kiss , T. House

Epidemic spread in single-host systems strongly depends on the population's contact network. However, little is known regarding the spread of epidemics across networks representing populations of multiple hosts. We explored cross-species…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-12-06 Shai Pilosof , Gili Greenbaum , Boris R. Krasnov , Yuval R. Zelnik

Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-29 Jenny Huang , Raphaël Morsomme , David Dunson , Jason Xu

The SIR model is used extensively in the field of epidemiology, in particular, for the analysis of communal diseases. One problem with SIR and other existing models is that they are tailored to random or Erdos type networks since they do…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2014-10-22 M. S. S. Khan

A random graph model with prescribed degree distribution and degree dependent edge weights is introduced. Each vertex is independently equipped with a random number of half-edges and each half-edge is assigned an integer valued weight…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-28 Tom Britton , Maria Deijfen , Fredrik Liljeros

We present a unified mathematical approach to epidemiological models with parametric heterogeneity, i.e., to the models that describe individuals in the population as having specific parameter (trait) values that vary from one individuals…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-02-14 Artem S. Novozhilov

Propagation of contagion in networks depends on the graph topology. This paper is concerned with studying the time-asymptotic behavior of the extended contact processes on static, undirected, finite-size networks. This is a contact process…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-07-03 June Zhang , José M. F. Moura