Related papers: A Benchmark Model for Fixed-Target Arctic Sea Ice …
Sea ice, or frozen ocean water, freezes and melts every year in the Arctic. Forecasts of where sea ice will be located weeks to months in advance have become more important as the amount of sea ice declines due to climate change, for…
Accurately forecasting Arctic sea ice from subseasonal to seasonal scales has been a major scientific effort with fundamental challenges at play. In addition to physics-based earth system models, researchers have been applying multiple…
Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace of global climate change. We provide point, interval, and density forecasts for four measures of Arctic sea ice: area, extent, thickness, and volume. Importantly, we…
The downward trend in the amount of Arctic sea ice has a wide range of environmental and economic consequences including important effects on the pace and intensity of global climate change. Based on several decades of satellite data, we…
We use "glide charts" (plots of sequences of root mean squared forecast errors as the target date is approached) to evaluate and compare fixed-target forecasts of Arctic sea ice. We first use them to evaluate the simple feature-engineered…
Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, typically simulate a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and…
Recent rapid loss of the Arctic sea ice motivates the study of the Arctic sea ice thickness. Global climate model that describes the ice's thickness evolution requires an accurate spatial temperature profile of the Arctic sea ice. However,…
Seasonal forecast of Arctic sea ice concentration is key to mitigate the negative impact and assess potential opportunities posed by the rapid decline of sea ice coverage. Seasonal prediction systems based on climate models often show…
Several environmental tipping points and self-reinforcing feedback loops are still disregarded within the frequently used climate models. Thus, existing climate models are not very representative for providing projections of the conditions…
This paper investigates the initial boundary value problem for a non-stationary one-dimensional heat equation that simulates the temperature distribution in freshwater ice near the Earth's poles. The mathematical model has been constructed…
Here we evaluate the sea ice, surface air temperature, and sea-level-pressure from 31 of the models used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for their biases, trends, and variability, and compare them to the CMIP5…
The diminishing extent of Arctic sea ice is a key indicator of climate change as well as an accelerant for future global warming. Since 1978, Arctic sea ice has been measured using satellite-based microwave sensing; however, different…
The rapid decline of Arctic sea ice resulting from anthropogenic climate change poses significant risks to indigenous communities, ecosystems, and the global climate system. This situation emphasizes the immediate necessity for precise…
Abrupt and irreversible winter Arctic sea-ice loss may occur under anthropogenic warming due to the collapse of a sea-ice equilibrium at a threshold value of CO$_2$, commonly referred to as a tipping point. Previous work has been unable to…
Arctic sea ice performs a vital role in global climate and has paramount impacts on both polar ecosystems and coastal communities. In the last few years, multiple deep learning based pan-Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) forecasting…
Arctic amplification has altered the climate patterns both regionally and globally, resulting in more frequent and more intense extreme weather events in the past few decades. The essential part of Arctic amplification is the unprecedented…
Arctic sea ice has steadily diminished as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have increased. Using observed data from 1979 to 2019, we estimate a close contemporaneous linear relationship between Arctic sea ice area and cumulative…
Global warming made the Arctic available for marine operations and created demand for reliable operational sea ice forecasts to make them safe. While ocean-ice numerical models are highly computationally intensive, relatively lightweight…
It has been widely debated whether Arctic sea-ice loss can reach a tipping point beyond which a large sea-ice area disappears abruptly. The theory of dynamical systems predicts a slowing down when a system destabilises towards a tipping…
As an increasing amount of remote sensing data becomes available in the Arctic Ocean, data-driven machine learning (ML) techniques are becoming widely used to predict sea ice velocity (SIV) and sea ice concentration (SIC). However, fully…