Related papers: A Benchmark Model for Fixed-Target Arctic Sea Ice …
Climate change communication is crucial to raising awareness and motivating action. In the context of breaching the limits set out by the Paris Agreement, we argue that climate scientists should move away from point estimates and towards…
A simple and efficient Bayesian machine learning (BML) training and forecasting algorithm, which exploits only a 20-year short observational time series and an approximate prior model, is developed to predict the Ni\~no 3 sea surface…
Weather is a phenomenon that affects everything and everyone around us on a daily basis. Weather prediction has been an important point of study for decades as researchers have tried to predict the weather and climatic changes using…
Prediction of various weather quantities is mostly based on deterministic numerical weather forecasting models. Multiple runs of these models with different initial conditions result ensembles of forecasts which are applied for estimating…
This study is part of an effort to improve the Navy's ability to forecast wind-generated ocean waves in ice-infested regions, and here we are attempting to further this goal by improving prediction of dissipation of wave energy by sea ice.…
As climate change continues to reshape marginal ice zones in the Arctic, accurate and reliable sea ice data are critical for ensuring maritime safety. This study compares regional ice charts from the Alaska Sea Ice Program with satellite…
Time series forecasting models are becoming increasingly prevalent due to their critical role in decision-making across various domains. However, most existing approaches represent the coupled temporal patterns, often neglecting the…
We describe a simple method that utilises the standard idea of bias-variance trade-off to improve the expected accuracy of numerical model forecasts of future climate. The method can be thought of as an optimal multi-model combination…
Classifying the state of the atmosphere into a finite number of large-scale circulation regimes is a popular way of investigating teleconnections, the predictability of severe weather events, and climate change. Here, we investigate a…
Managing the prediction of metrics in high-frequency financial markets is a challenging task. An efficient way is by monitoring the dynamics of a limit order book to identify the information edge. This paper describes the first publicly…
In this paper, optical target tracking, by regular target bearing measurements and target range in a lower and scheduled measurement rate is considered. Variance of the target range estimation error is used as scheduling criterion. For this…
Non-stationary time series modelling is applied to long tidal records from Esbjerg, Denmark, and coupled to climate change projections for sea-level and storminess, to produce projections of likely future sea-level maxima. The model has…
Sea surface height observations provided by satellite altimetry since 1993 show a rising rate (3.4 mm/year) for global mean sea level. While on average, sea level has risen 10 cm over the last 30 years, there is considerable regional…
Extreme precipitation shows non-stationary behavior over time, but also with respect to other large-scale variables. While this effect is often neglected, we propose a model including the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation, time,…
Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet…
Predictive Business Process Monitoring (PBPM) aims to forecast future outcomes of ongoing business processes. However, existing methods often lack flexibility to handle real-world challenges such as simultaneous events, class imbalance, and…
In this paper we quantify the performances of an automated weather forecast system implemented on the Large Binocular Telescope (LBT) site at Mt. Graham (Arizona) in forecasting the main atmospheric parameters close to the ground. The…
Experience of live video streaming can be improved if future available bandwidth can be predicted more accurately at the video uploader side. Thus follows a natural question which is how to make predictions both easily and precisely in an…
Sea ice is a key element of the global Earth system, with a major impact on global climate and regional weather. Unfortunately, accurate sea ice modeling is challenging due to the diversity and complexity of underlying physics happening…
Climate change, amplified in the far north, has led to rapid sea ice decline in recent years. In the summer, melt ponds form on the surface of Arctic sea ice, significantly lowering the ice reflectivity (albedo) and thereby accelerating ice…