Related papers: A Benchmark Model for Fixed-Target Arctic Sea Ice …
Several Earth system components are at a high risk of undergoing rapid and irreversible qualitative changes or `tipping', due to increasing climate warming. Potential tipping elements include Arctic sea-ice, Atlantic meridional overturning…
Arctic sea ice plays integral roles in both polar and global environmental systems, notably ecosystems, communities, and economies. As sea ice continues to decline due to climate change, it has become imperative to accurately predict the…
Antarctic sea ice has undergone unprecedented changes in recent years, raising questions about how this key geophysical system is responding to climate change. Decades of slow expansion were replaced by a precipitous decline in 2014-2017, a…
Variation of Arctic sea ice has significant impacts on polar ecosystems, transporting routes, coastal communities, and global climate. Tracing the change of sea ice at a finer scale is paramount for both operational applications and…
Our ability to predict the future of Arctic sea ice is limited by ice's sensitivity to detailed surface conditions such as the distribution of snow and melt ponds. Snow on top of the ice decreases ice's thermal conductivity, increases its…
Snow is a crucial element of the sea ice system, affecting sea ice growth and decay due to its low thermal conductivity and high albedo. Despite its importance, present-day climate models have an idealized representation of snow, often…
Sea ice at the North Pole is vital to global climate dynamics. However, accurately forecasting sea ice poses a significant challenge due to the intricate interaction among multiple variables. Leveraging the capability to integrate multiple…
Predicting Arctic sea ice extent is a notoriously difficult forecasting problem, even for lead times as short as one month. Motivated by Arctic intraannual variability phenomena such as reemergence of sea surface temperature and sea ice…
We study the response of the Lagrangian sea ice model neXtSIM to the uncertainty in the sea surface wind and sea ice cohesion. The ice mechanics in neXtSIM is based on a brittle-like rheological framework. The study considers short-term…
Rapid changes in Earth's cryosphere caused by human activity can lead to significant environmental impacts. Computer models provide a useful tool for understanding the behavior and projecting the future of Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets.…
Surface mass balance (SMB) is an important factor in the estimation of sea level change, and data are collected to estimate models for prediction of SMB over the Antarctic ice sheets. Using a quality-controlled aggregate dataset of SMB…
Understanding how sea ice melts is critical to climate projections. In the Arctic, melt ponds that develop on the surface of sea ice floes during the late spring and summer largely determine their albedo -- a key parameter in climate…
Arctic sea ice extent has drawn increasing interest and alarm from geoscientists, owing to its rapid decline. In this article, we propose a Bayesian spatio-temporal hierarchical statistical model for binary Arctic sea ice data over two…
Arctic sea ice plays a critical role in regulating Earth's climate system, significantly influencing polar ecological stability and human activities in coastal regions. Recent advances in artificial intelligence have facilitated the…
As Arctic conditions rapidly change, human activity in the Arctic will continue to increase and so will the need for high-resolution observations of sea ice. While satellite imagery can provide high spatial resolution, it is temporally…
There is ongoing debate over whether Arctic sea-ice has already passed a `tipping point', or whether it will do so in the future. Several recent studies argue that the loss of summer sea ice does not involve an irreversible bifurcation,…
Various studies identified possible drivers of extremes of Arctic sea ice reduction, such as observed in the summers of 2007 and 2012, including preconditioning, local feedback mechanisms, oceanic heat transport and the synoptic- and…
Sea ice plays an important role in stabilising the Earth system. Yet, representing its dynamics remains a major challenge for models, as the underlying processes are scale-invariant and highly anisotropic. This poses a dilemma:…
Over recent decades, the Arctic Ocean has experienced dramatic changes due to climate change. Retreating sea ice has opened up large areas of ocean, resulting in an enhanced wave climate. Taking into account the intense seasonality and the…
The downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent is one of the most dramatic signals of climate change during recent decades. Comprehensive climate models have struggled to reproduce this, typically simulating a slower rate of sea ice retreat…