Related papers: Low case numbers enable long-term stable pandemic …

When a new infectious disease (or a new strain of an existing one) emerges, as in the recent COVID-19 pandemic, different types of mobility restrictions are considered to slow down or mitigate the spread of the disease. The measures to be…

We propose a versatile model with a flexible choice of control for an early-pandemic outbreak prevention when vaccine/drug is not yet available. At that stage, control is often limited to non-medical interventions like social distancing and…

Mass vaccination offers a promising exit strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as vaccination progresses, demands to lift restrictions increase, despite most of the population remaining susceptible. Using our age-stratified SEIRD-ICU…

Successful predictive modeling of epidemics requires an understanding of the implicit feedback control strategies which are implemented by populations to modulate the spread of contagion. While this task of capturing endogenous behavior can…

Optimal curing strategy of suppressing competing epidemics spreading over complex networks is a critical issue. In this paper, we first establish a framework to capture the coupling between two epidemics, and then analyze the system's…

Using a simple economic model in which social-distancing reduces contagion, we study the implications of waning immunity for the epidemiological dynamics and social activity. If immunity wanes, we find that COVID-19 likely becomes endemic…

We investigate an epidemiological model that incorporates waning of immunity at the individual level and boosting of the immune system upon re-exposure to the pathogen. When immunity is fully restored upon boosting, the system can be…

In order to prevent the spread of COVID-19, governments have often required regional or national lockdowns, which have caused extensive economic stagnation over broad areas as the shock of the lockdowns has diffused to other regions through…

Measures of wealth and production have been found to scale superlinearly with the population of a city. Therefore, it makes economic sense for humans to congregate together in dense settlements. A recent model of population dynamics showed…

Over the last two decades, several methods have been proposed for stabilizing the dynamics of biological populations. However, these methods have typically been evaluated using different population dynamics models and in the context of very…

Lockdown procedures have been proven successful in mitigating the spread of the viruses in this COVID-19 pandemic, but they also have devastating impact on the economy. We use a modified Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Deceased model with…

Since early 2020, the world has been dealing with a raging pandemic outbreak: COVID-19. A year later, vaccines have become accessible, but in limited quantities, so that governments needed to devise a strategy to decide which part of the…

We consider the control of the COVID-19 pandemic through a standard SIR compartmental model. This control is induced by the aggregation of individuals' decisions to limit their social interactions: when the epidemic is ongoing, an…

We propose a tractable epidemic model that includes containment measures. In the absence of containment measures, the epidemics spread exponentially fast whenever the infectivity rate is positive, $\lambda>0$. The containment measures are…

We study the effectiveness of tracking and testing in mitigating or suppressing epidemic outbreaks, in combination with or as an alternative to quarantines and global lockdowns. We study these intervention methods on a network-based SEIR…

COVID-19 is a global epidemic. Till now, there is no remedy for this epidemic. However, isolation and social distancing are seemed to be effective preventive measures to control this pandemic. Therefore, in this paper, an optimization…

The World Health Organization (WHO) made the assessment that COVID-19 can be characterized as a pandemic on March 11, 2020. To the COVID-19 outbreak, there is no vaccination and no treatment. The only way to control the COVID-19 outbreak is…

In this paper, we present a discrete-time networked SEIR model using population flow, its derivation, and assumptions under which this model is well defined. We identify properties of the system's equilibria, namely the healthy states. We…

Mitigation measures are essential for controlling the spread of infectious diseases during pandemics and epidemics, but they impose considerable societal, individual, and economic costs. We developed a general optimization framework to…

After the first lockdown in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, many countries faced difficulties in balancing infection control with economics. Due to limited prior knowledge, economists began researching this issue using cost-benefit…