Related papers: Low case numbers enable long-term stable pandemic …
The topic of finding effective strategy to halt virus in complex network is of current interest. We propose an immunization strategy for seasonal epidemics that occur periodically. Based on the local information of the infection status from…
This paper studies the dynamics of a network-based SIRS epidemic model with vaccination and a nonmonotone incidence rate. This type of nonlinear incidence can be used to describe the psychological or inhibitory effect from the behavioral…
In the realm of pandemic dynamics, understanding the intricate interplay between disease transmission, interventions, and immunity is pivotal for effective control strategies. Through a rigorous agent-based computer simulation, we embarked…
In this paper, we derive and analyze a compartmental model for the control of arboviral diseases which takes into account an imperfect vaccine combined with individual protection and some vector control strategies already studied in the…
Epidemic containment is a major concern when confronting large-scale infections in complex networks. Many works have been devoted to analytically understand how to restructure the network to minimize the impact of major outbreaks of…
This paper is based on the observation that, during Covid-19 epidemic, the choice of which individuals should be tested has an important impact on the effectiveness of selective confinement measures. This decision problem is closely related…
The novel COVID-19 pandemic is a current, major global health threat. Up till now, there is no fully approved pharmacological treatment or a vaccine. In this study, simple mathematical models were employed to examine the dynamics of…
Research in epidemiology often focusses on designing interventions that result in the number of infected individuals asymptotically approaching zero, without considering that this number may peak at high values during transients. Recent…
Epidemic risk assessment poses inherent challenges, with traditional approaches often failing to balance health outcomes and economic constraints. This paper presents a data-driven decision support tool that models epidemiological dynamics…
We propose an epidemiological model that includes the mobility patterns of the individuals, in the spirit to those considered in (Barmak, 2011, 2016) and (Medus, 2011). We assume that people move around in a city of 120x120 blocks with 300…
Social distancing and isolation have been introduced widely to counter the COVID-19 pandemic. However, more moderate contact reduction policies become desirable owing to adverse social, psychological, and economic consequences of a complete…
It is essential to understand the dynamics of epidemics in the presence of coexisting pathogens. There are various phenomenon that can effect the dynamics. In this paper, we formulate a mathematical model using different assumptions to…
During the COVID-19 pandemic, case isolation emerged as a key non-pharmaceutical intervention in pandemic response. Its effectiveness hinges on the timing of isolation, which is often dictated by the onset of contagiousness. While…
Motivated by COVID-19, we develop and analyze a simple stochastic model for a disease spread in human population. We track how the number of infected and critically ill people develops over time in order to estimate the demand that is…
When an infectious disease propagates throughout society, the incidence function may rise at first due to an increase in pathogenicity and then decrease due to inhibitory effects until it reaches saturation. Effective vaccination and…
We consider optimal vaccination protocol where the vaccine is in short supply. In this case, disease extinction results from a large and rare fluctuation. We show that the probability of such fluctuation can be exponentially increased by…
In this work, we provide a general mathematical formalism to study the optimal control of an epidemic, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, via incentives to lockdown and testing. In particular, we model the interplay between the government and…
Understanding dynamics of an infectious disease helps in designing appropriate strategies for containing its spread in a population. Recent mathematical models are aimed at studying dynamics of some specific types of infectious diseases. In…
This article is a reproduction of a Fraunhofer ITWM report from 28 June 2021 on the contribution of various non-pharmaceutical measures in breaking the 3rd Corona wave in Germany. The main finding is that testing contributed more to the…
In this study, we present an immuno-epidemic model to understand mitigation options during an epidemic break. The model incorporates comorbidity and multiple-vaccine doses through a system of coupled integro-differential equations to…