Related papers: Identification and control of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic …
The SIR model is a three-compartment model of the time development of an epidemic. After normalizing the dependent variables, the model is a system of two non-linear differential equations for the susceptible proportion $S$ and the infected…
The present paper introduces a new model used to study and analyse the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) epidemic-reported-data from Spain. This is a Hidden Markov Model whose hidden layer is a regeneration process…
Mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 spread are used for guiding the design of mitigation steps aimed at containing and decelerating the contagion, and at identifying impending breaches of health care system surge capacity. The challenges of…
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-CoronaVirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) caused the ongoing pandemic. This pandemic devastated the world by killing more than a million people, as of October 2020. It is imperative to understand the transmission dynamics…
The susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model describes the evolution of three species of individuals which are subject to an infection and recovery mechanism. A susceptible $S$ can become infectious with an infection rate $\beta$ by an…
We study the impact of parameter estimation and state measurement errors on a control framework for optimally mitigating the spread of epidemics. We capture the epidemic spreading process using a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemic…
There is a growing interest in modeling and analyzing the spread of diseases like the SARS-CoV-2 infection using stochastic models. These models are typically analyzed quantitatively and are not often subject to validation using formal…
The infections and fatalities due to SARS-CoV-2 virus for cases specific to India have been studied using a deterministic susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-dead (SEIRD) compartmental model. One of the most significant epidemiological…
Monitoring the incidence of new infections during a pandemic is critical for an effective public health response. General population prevalence surveys for SARS-CoV-2 can provide high-quality data to estimate incidence. However, estimation…
We investigate transmission dynamics for SARS-CoV-2 on a real network of classes at Simon Fraser University, a medium-sized school in Western Canada. Outbreaks are simulated over the course of one semester across numerous parameter settings…
Compartmental models are popular in the mathematics of epidemiology for their simplicity and wide range of applications. Although they are typically solved as initial value problems for a system of ordinary differential equations, the…
Nowadays, epidemic models provide an appropriate tool for describing the propagation of biological viruses in human or animal populations, or rumours and other kinds of information in social networks and malware in both computer and ad hoc…
During its first two years, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic manifested as multiple waves shaped by complex interactions between variants of concern, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the immunological landscape of the population. Understanding…
This work investigates the benefits of implementing a systematic approach to social isolation policies during epidemics. We develop a mixed integer data-driven model predictive control (MPC) scheme based on an SIHRD model which is…
We study the problem of optimal control of the stochastic SIR model. Models of this type are used in mathematical epidemiology to capture the time evolution of highly infectious diseases such as COVID-19. Our approach relies on…
Superspreading complicates the study of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. I propose a model for aggregated case data that accounts for superspreading and improves statistical inference. In a Bayesian framework, the model is estimated on German data…
The pandemic linked to COVID-19 infection represents an unprecedented clinical and healthcare challenge for many medical researchers attempting to prevent its worldwide spread. This pandemic also represents a major challenge for…
We present an epidemiological compartment model, SAIR(S), that explicitly captures the dynamics of asymptomatic infected individuals in an epidemic spread process. We first present a group model and then discuss networked versions. We…
The global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic suggests a novel type of disease spread dynamics. WHO states that there is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are immune from a second infection [WHO].…
Given the urgent informational needs connected with the diffusion of infection with regard to the COVID-19 pandemic, in this paper, we propose a sampling design for building a continuous-time surveillance system. Compared with other…