Related papers: Identification and control of SARS-CoV-2 epidemic …
This primer describes the statistical uncertainty in mechanistic models and provides R code to quantify it. We begin with an overview of mechanistic models for infectious disease, and then describe the sources of statistical uncertainty in…
The discovery of SARS-CoV-2, the responsible virus for the Covid-19 epidemic, has sparked a global health concern with many countries affected. Developing models that can interpret the epidemic and give common trend parameters are useful…
In late 2019, a novel coronavirus, the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak was identified in Wuhan, China and later spread to every corner of the globe. Whilst the number of infection-induced deaths in Ghana, West Africa are minimal when compared with the…
During an infectious disease outbreak, providing accurate answers to policy questions about transmission requires a detailed model of the natural history of infectiousness. Unfortunately, direct measures of infectiousness are generally…
In the present paper, we model the cumulative number of persons reported to be infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, in a country or a region, by a sum of logistic functions. For a given logistic function, using Eulerian numbers, we find the…
In this work we analyze mathematically the consequences and effectiveness of strategies to control an epidemic in the framework of classical SEIR models with multiple parallel infectious stages. We define the mathematical concept of a…
The current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is a harsh reminder of the fact that, whether in a single human host or a wave of infection across continents, viral dynamics is often a story about the numbers. In this snapshot, our aim is to provide a…
The COVID-19 pandemic has been a great catastrophe that upended human lives and caused millions of deaths all over the world. The rapid spread of the virus, with its early-stage exponential growth and subsequent 'waves', caught many medical…
Facing a global challenge with over 6.9 million fatalities, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of CoViD-19, demands novel and comprehensive approaches to understand its complex dynamics. This…
The challenges presented by the COVID-19 epidemic have created a renewed interest in the development of new methods to combat infectious diseases. A prominent property of the SARS-CoV-2 transmission is the significant fraction of…
During the COVID-19 pandemic, community containment measures have been implemented in different parts of the world. However, despite government recommendations and mandates, a progressive increase in mobility was observed in several sites.…
We introduce a general system of ordinary differential equations that includes some classical and recent models for the epidemic spread in a closed population without vital dynamic in a finite time horizon. The model is vectorial, in the…
We introduce a new probabilistic model to estimate the real spread of the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus along regions or countries. Our model simulates the behavior of each individual in a population according to a probabilistic model through an…
During 2020 and 2021, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission has been increasing amongst the world's population at an alarming rate. Reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and other diseases that are spread in…
The deadly coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has gone out of control globally. Despite much effort by scientists, medical experts, and society in general, the…
In this work we propose the design principles of a stochastic graph-based model for the simulation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. The proposed approach incorporates three sub-models, namely, the spatial model, the mobility model, and the…
Although modeling studies are focused on the control of SIR-based systems describing epidemic data sets (particularly the COVID-19), few of them present a formal dynamic characterization in terms of equilibrium sets and stability. Such…
We propose a simple model of spreading of some infection in an originally healthy population which is different from other models existing in the literature. In particular, we use an operator technique which allows us to describe in a…
We investigate, through a fractional mathematical model, the effects of physical distance on the SARS-CoV-2 virus transmission. Two controls are considered in our model for eradication of the spread of COVID-19: media education, through…
This paper analyses the optimal control of infectious disease propagation using a classic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model characterised by permanent immunity and the absence of available vaccines. The control is performed over a…