English
Related papers

Related papers: A Vision for Numerical Weather Prediction in 2030

200 papers

While numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are essential for forecasting thunderstorms hours in advance, NWP uncertainty, which increases with lead time, limits the predictability of thunderstorm occurrence. This study investigates how…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-02-20 Kianusch Vahid Yousefnia , Tobias Bölle , Christoph Metzl

Weather forecasting plays a crucial role in supporting strategic decisions across various sectors, including agriculture, renewable energy production, and disaster management. However, the inherently dynamic and chaotic behavior of the…

The planning and operation of renewable energy, especially wind power, depend crucially on accurate, timely, and high-resolution weather information. Coarse-grid global numerical weather forecasts are typically downscaled to meet these…

Weather forecasting is usually solved through numerical weather prediction (NWP), which can sometimes lead to unsatisfactory performance due to inappropriate setting of the initial states. In this paper, we design a data-driven method…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-05 Bin Wang , Jie Lu , Zheng Yan , Huaishao Luo , Tianrui Li , Yu Zheng , Guangquan Zhang

Advanced machine learning models have recently achieved high predictive accuracy for weather and climate prediction. However, these complex models often lack inherent transparency and interpretability, acting as "black boxes" that impede…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-03-29 Ruyi Yang , Jingyu Hu , Zihao Li , Jianli Mu , Tingzhao Yu , Jiangjiang Xia , Xuhong Li , Aritra Dasgupta , Haoyi Xiong

The numerous recent breakthroughs in machine learning (ML) make imperative to carefully ponder how the scientific community can benefit from a technology that, although not necessarily new, is today living its golden age. This Grand…

Space Physics · Physics 2019-10-02 Enrico Camporeale

Wind is one kind of high-efficient, environmentally-friendly and cost-effective energy source. Wind power, as one of the largest renewable energy in the world, has been playing a more and more important role in supplying electricity. Though…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-01-02 Wei Fan , Yanjie Fu , Shun Zheng , Jiang Bian , Yuanchun Zhou , Hui Xiong

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities.…

Applications · Statistics 2022-02-09 Fotios Petropoulos , Daniele Apiletti , Vassilios Assimakopoulos , Mohamed Zied Babai , Devon K. Barrow , Souhaib Ben Taieb , Christoph Bergmeir , Ricardo J. Bessa , Jakub Bijak , John E. Boylan , Jethro Browell , Claudio Carnevale , Jennifer L. Castle , Pasquale Cirillo , Michael P. Clements , Clara Cordeiro , Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira , Shari De Baets , Alexander Dokumentov , Joanne Ellison , Piotr Fiszeder , Philip Hans Franses , David T. Frazier , Michael Gilliland , M. Sinan Gönül , Paul Goodwin , Luigi Grossi , Yael Grushka-Cockayne , Mariangela Guidolin , Massimo Guidolin , Ulrich Gunter , Xiaojia Guo , Renato Guseo , Nigel Harvey , David F. Hendry , Ross Hollyman , Tim Januschowski , Jooyoung Jeon , Victor Richmond R. Jose , Yanfei Kang , Anne B. Koehler , Stephan Kolassa , Nikolaos Kourentzes , Sonia Leva , Feng Li , Konstantia Litsiou , Spyros Makridakis , Gael M. Martin , Andrew B. Martinez , Sheik Meeran , Theodore Modis , Konstantinos Nikolopoulos , Dilek Önkal , Alessia Paccagnini , Anastasios Panagiotelis , Ioannis Panapakidis , Jose M. Pavía , Manuela Pedio , Diego J. Pedregal , Pierre Pinson , Patrícia Ramos , David E. Rapach , J. James Reade , Bahman Rostami-Tabar , Michał Rubaszek , Georgios Sermpinis , Han Lin Shang , Evangelos Spiliotis , Aris A. Syntetos , Priyanga Dilini Talagala , Thiyanga S. Talagala , Len Tashman , Dimitrios Thomakos , Thordis Thorarinsdottir , Ezio Todini , Juan Ramón Trapero Arenas , Xiaoqian Wang , Robert L. Winkler , Alisa Yusupova , Florian Ziel

Probability forecasts are intended to account for the uncertainties inherent in forecasting. It is suggested that from an end-user's point of view probability is not necessarily sufficient to reflect uncertainties that are not simply the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-01-22 Kevin Judd

As in many other areas of engineering and applied science, Machine Learning (ML) is having a profound impact in the domain of Weather and Climate Prediction. A very recent development in this area has been the emergence of fully data-driven…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-06 Massimo Bonavita

Data-driven weather prediction models (DDWPs) have made rapid strides in recent years, demonstrating an ability to approximate Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models to a high degree of accuracy. The fast, accurate, and low-cost DDWP…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-07 Vivek Ramavajjala , Peetak P. Mitra

Accurate weather prediction is essential for many aspects of life, notably the early warning of extreme weather events such as rainstorms. Short-term predictions of these events rely on forecasts from numerical weather models, in which,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-05 Guoxing Chen , Wei-Chyung Wang

We describe a simple method that utilises the standard idea of bias-variance trade-off to improve the expected accuracy of numerical model forecasts of future climate. The method can be thought of as an optimal multi-model combination…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2009-11-11 Stephen Jewson , Ed Hawkins

Predicting the future state of a system has always been a natural motivation for science and practical applications. Such a topic, beyond its obvious technical and societal relevance, is also interesting from a conceptual point of view.…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-04-25 Hykel Hosni , Angelo Vulpiani

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models represent sub-grid processes using parameterizations, which are often complex and a major source of uncertainty in weather forecasting. In this work, we devise a simple machine learning (ML)…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-03-26 Pablo Rozas Larraondo , Luigi J. Renzullo , Inaki Inza , Jose A. Lozano

During the last decades, international attempts have been made to develop realistic space weather prediction tools aiming to forecast the conditions on the Sun and in the interplanetary environment. These efforts have led to the development…

Current techniques for predicting climate change are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical modeling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called "complex system", made up of a large number of interacting elements. We…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-05-31 Francois Louchet

Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models are powerful tools for medium-range forecasts but often lack physical consistency, leading to outputs that violate conservation laws. This study introduces a set of novel…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-01-30 Yingkai Sha , John S. Schreck , William Chapman , David John Gagne

Temperature forecasting and rain forecasting in today's environment is playing a major role in many fields like transportation, tour planning and agriculture. The purpose of this paper is to provide a real time forecasting to the user…

Other Computer Science · Computer Science 2013-12-11 Abhishek Kumar SIngh , Aditi Sharma , Rahul Mishra

Accurate weather forecasting holds significant importance to human activities. Currently, there are two paradigms for weather forecasting: Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and Deep Learning-based Prediction (DLP). NWP utilizes atmospheric…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-01-10 Wenyuan Li , Zili Liu , Keyan Chen , Hao Chen , Shunlin Liang , Zhengxia Zou , Zhenwei Shi