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Related papers: A Vision for Numerical Weather Prediction in 2030

200 papers

While widely recognized as one of the most substantial weather forecasting methodologies, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) usually suffers from relatively coarse resolution and inevitable bias due to tempo-spatial discretization, physical…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-12-21 Pengwei Liu , Wenwei Wang , Bingqing Peng , Binqing Wu , Liang Sun

A major problem in numerical weather prediction (NWP) is the estimation of high-dimensional covariance matrices from a small number of samples. Maximum likelihood estimators cannot provide reliable estimates when the overall dimension is…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-13 Robert J. Webber , Matthias Morzfeld

The field of meteorological forecasting has undergone a significant transformation with the integration of large models, especially those employing deep learning techniques. This paper reviews the advancements and applications of these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-11 Hailong Shu , Yue Wang , Weiwei Song , Huichuang Guo , Zhen Song

Given the interpretability, accuracy, and stability of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, current operational weather forecasting relies heavily on the NWP approach. In the past two years, the rapid development of Artificial…

This paper traces the global race to apply early electronic computers to numerical weather prediction in the decades following World War Two. A brief overview of the early history of numerical weather prediction in the United States, United…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2025-06-30 Charles Yang

Over the past few years, machine learning-based data-driven weather prediction has been transforming operational weather forecasting by providing more accurate forecasts while using a mere fraction of computing power compared to traditional…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-08-27 Zekun Ni , Jonathan Weyn , Hang Zhang , Yanfei Xiang , Jiang Bian , Weixin Jin , Kit Thambiratnam , Qi Zhang , Haiyu Dong , Hongyu Sun

Accurate surface solar irradiance (SSI) forecasting is essential for optimizing renewable energy systems, particularly in the context of long-term energy planning on a global scale. This paper presents a pioneering approach to solar…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-11-14 Alberto Carpentieri , Jussi Leinonen , Jeff Adie , Boris Bonev , Doris Folini , Farah Hariri

Issuing timely severe weather warnings helps mitigate potentially disastrous consequences. Recent advancements in Neural Weather Models (NWMs) offer a computationally inexpensive and fast approach for forecasting atmospheric environments on…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-08-22 Antoine Leclerc , Erwan Koch , Monika Feldmann , Daniele Nerini , Tom Beucler

There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society…

Combining forecasts from multiple numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have shown substantial benefit over the use of individual forecast products. Although combination, in a broad sense, is widely used in meteorological forecasting,…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-26 Céline Cunen , Thea Roksvåg , Claudio Heinrich-Mertsching , Alex Lenkoski

This popular article provides a short summary of the progress and prospects in Weather and Climate Modelling for the benefit of high school and undergraduate college students and early career researchers. Although this is not a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-11-24 R Krishnan , Manmeet Singh , Ramesh Vellore , Milind Mujumdar

Recent advances in AI-based weather prediction have led to the development of artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) models with competitive forecast skill compared to traditional NWP models, but with substantially reduced…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-30 Nicholas Loveday , Tracy Hertneky

This study presents a hybrid neural network model for short-term (1-6 hours ahead) surface wind speed forecasting, combining Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) with observational data from ground weather stations. It relies on the MeteoNet…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-11-21 Roberta Baggio , Killian Pujol , Florian Pantillon , Dominique Lambert , Jean-Baptiste Filippi , Jean-François Muzy

Artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) models now often outperform traditional physics-based models on common metrics while requiring orders-of-magnitude less computing resources and time. Open-access AIWP models thus hold…

Complex numerical weather prediction models incorporate a variety of physical processes, each described by multiple alternative physical schemes with specific parameters. The selection of the physical schemes and the choice of the…

Numerical Analysis · Computer Science 2018-02-23 Azam Moosavi , Vishwas Rao , Adrian Sandu

In this paper, we present Pangu-Weather, a deep learning based system for fast and accurate global weather forecast. For this purpose, we establish a data-driven environment by downloading $43$ years of hourly global weather data from the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-11-07 Kaifeng Bi , Lingxi Xie , Hengheng Zhang , Xin Chen , Xiaotao Gu , Qi Tian

The impact of meteorological observations on weather forecasting varies with sensor type, location, time, and other environmental factors. Thus, quantitative analysis of observation impacts is crucial for effective and efficient development…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-26 Hyeon-Ju Jeon , Jeon-Ho Kang , In-Hyuk Kwon , O-Joun Lee

Climate change has become one of the biggest global problems increasingly compromising the Earth's habitability. Recent developments such as the extraordinary heat waves in California & Canada, and the devastating floods in Germany point to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-12-13 Manmeet Singh , Chirag Dhara , Adarsh Kumar , Sukhpal Singh Gill , Steve Uhlig

Rainfall is an important variable to be able to monitor and forecast across Africa, due to its impact on agriculture, food security, climate related diseases and public health. Numerical Weather Models (NWM) are an important component of…

Weather forecasting is essential but remains computationally intensive and physically incomplete in traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods. Deep learning (DL) models offer efficiency and accuracy but often ignore physical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-26 Yingtao Luo , Shikai Fang , Binqing Wu , Qingsong Wen , Liang Sun