Forecasting: theory and practice
Abstract
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2012.03854,
title = {Forecasting: theory and practice},
author = {Fotios Petropoulos and Daniele Apiletti and Vassilios Assimakopoulos and Mohamed Zied Babai and Devon K. Barrow and Souhaib Ben Taieb and Christoph Bergmeir and Ricardo J. Bessa and Jakub Bijak and John E. Boylan and Jethro Browell and Claudio Carnevale and Jennifer L. Castle and Pasquale Cirillo and Michael P. Clements and Clara Cordeiro and Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira and Shari De Baets and Alexander Dokumentov and Joanne Ellison and Piotr Fiszeder and Philip Hans Franses and David T. Frazier and Michael Gilliland and M. Sinan Gönül and Paul Goodwin and Luigi Grossi and Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Mariangela Guidolin and Massimo Guidolin and Ulrich Gunter and Xiaojia Guo and Renato Guseo and Nigel Harvey and David F. Hendry and Ross Hollyman and Tim Januschowski and Jooyoung Jeon and Victor Richmond R. Jose and Yanfei Kang and Anne B. Koehler and Stephan Kolassa and Nikolaos Kourentzes and Sonia Leva and Feng Li and Konstantia Litsiou and Spyros Makridakis and Gael M. Martin and Andrew B. Martinez and Sheik Meeran and Theodore Modis and Konstantinos Nikolopoulos and Dilek Önkal and Alessia Paccagnini and Anastasios Panagiotelis and Ioannis Panapakidis and Jose M. Pavía and Manuela Pedio and Diego J. Pedregal and Pierre Pinson and Patrícia Ramos and David E. Rapach and J. James Reade and Bahman Rostami-Tabar and Michał Rubaszek and Georgios Sermpinis and Han Lin Shang and Evangelos Spiliotis and Aris A. Syntetos and Priyanga Dilini Talagala and Thiyanga S. Talagala and Len Tashman and Dimitrios Thomakos and Thordis Thorarinsdottir and Ezio Todini and Juan Ramón Trapero Arenas and Xiaoqian Wang and Robert L. Winkler and Alisa Yusupova and Florian Ziel},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2012.03854},
year = {2022}
}