Related papers: Retiree mortality forecasting: A partial age-range…
This paper assesses the hedge effectiveness of an index-based longevity swap and a longevity cap. Although swaps are a natural instrument for hedging longevity risk, derivatives with non-linear pay-offs, such as longevity caps, also provide…
This paper studies the optimal investment problem for a hybrid pension plan under model uncertainty, where both the contribution and the benefit are adjusted depending on the performance of the plan. Furthermore, an age and time-dependent…
There has been growing interest on forecasting mortality. In this article, we propose a novel dynamic Bayesian approach for modeling and forecasting the age-at-death distribution, focusing on a three-components mixture of a Dirac mass, a…
Bone age assessment is a task performed daily in hospitals worldwide. This involves a clinician estimating the age of a patient from a radiograph of the non-dominant hand. Our approach to automated bone age assessment is to modularise the…
The determination of the shapes of mortality curves, the estimation and projection of mortality patterns over time, and the investigation of differences in mortality patterns across different small underdeveloped populations have received…
Evidence shows that the labor participation rate of retirement age cohorts is non-negligible, and it is a widespread phenomenon globally. In the United States, the labor force participation rate for workers age 75 and older is projected to…
In areas of application, including actuarial science and demography, it is increasingly common to consider a time series of curves; an example of this is age-specific mortality rates observed over a period of years. Given that age can be…
We study the modeling and forecasting of high-dimensional functional time series (HDFTS), which can be cross-sectionally correlated and temporally dependent. We introduce a decomposition of the HDFTS into two distinct components: a…
Worldwide, many millions of people die suddenly and unexpectedly each year, either with or without a prior history of cardiovascular disease. Such events are sparse (once in a lifetime), many victims will not have had prior investigations…
The focus of the present paper is to forecast mortality rates for small sub-populations that are parts of a larger super-population. In this setting the assumption is that it is possible to produce reliable forecasts for the…
Understanding and modeling mortality patterns, especially differences in mortality rates between populations, is vital for demographic analysis and public health planning. We compare three statistical models within the age-period framework…
In order to implement disease-specific interventions in young age groups, policy makers in low- and middle-income countries require timely and accurate estimates of age- and cause-specific child mortality. High quality data is not available…
Machine learning models that aim to predict dementia onset usually follow the classification methodology ignoring the time until an event happens. This study presents an alternative, using survival analysis within the context of machine…
The increasing life expectancy enhances the importance of mortality forecasting. Most developing nations, including Tanzania, forecast mortality rates using static life tables. However, these tables exaggerate death probabilities by…
The decline in interest rates and economic stabilization has heightened the importance of accurate mortality rate forecasting, particularly in insurance and pension markets. Multi-step-ahead predictions are crucial for public health,…
Brain age prediction models have succeeded in predicting clinical outcomes in neurodegenerative diseases, but can struggle with tasks involving faster progressing diseases and low quality data. To enhance their performance, we employ a…
Accurately predicting industrial aging processes makes it possible to schedule maintenance events further in advance, ensuring a cost-efficient and reliable operation of the plant. So far, these degradation processes were usually described…
We provide forecasts for mortality rates by using two different approaches. First we employ dynamic non-linear logistic models based on Heligman-Pollard formula. Second, we assume that the dynamics of the mortality rates can be modelled…
A retiree's appetite for risk is a common input into the lifetime utility models that are traditionally used to find optimal strategies for the decumulation of retirement savings. In this work, we consider a retiree with potentially…
Aging is a multidimensional process where phenotypes change at varying rates. Longitudinal studies of aging typically involve following a cohort of individuals over the course of several years. This design is hindered by cost, attrition,…