Related papers: Retiree mortality forecasting: A partial age-range…
This paper presents an application of Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) for analyzing age-specific death rates (ASDRs), constituting a longitudinal dataset with repeated measurements over time. GEE models, known for their robustness in…
Undoubtedly, several countries worldwide endure to experience a continuous increase in life expectancy, extending the challenges of life actuaries and demographers in forecasting mortality. Although several stochastic mortality models have…
Understanding patterns in mortality across subpopulations is essential for local health policy decision making. One of the key challenges of subnational mortality rate estimation is the presence of small populations and zero or near zero…
This article describes a method to estimate the mortality rate ratio R from current status data with duration in a chronic condition in case the general mortality of the overall population is known. Apart from the general mortality, the…
BACKGROUND. The majority of countries in Africa and nearly one third of all countries require mortality models to infer complete age schedules of mortality, required for population estimates, projections/forecasts and many other tasks in…
The gradual accumulation of damage and dysregulation during the aging of living organisms can be quantified. Even so, the aging process is complex and has multiple interacting physiological scales -- from the molecular to cellular to whole…
This paper examines the retirement decision, optimal investment, and consumption strategies under an age-dependent force of mortality. We formulate the optimization problem as a combined stochastic control and optimal stopping problem with…
We propose and estimate a model of demand and supply of annuities. To this end, we use rich data from Chile, where annuities are bought and sold in a private market via a two-stage process: first-price auctions followed by bargaining. We…
Mortality forecasting plays a pivotal role in insurance and financial risk management of life insurers, pension funds, and social securities. Mortality data is usually high-dimensional in nature and favors factor model approaches to…
The optimal age that a retiree claims social security retirement benefits is in general a complicated function of many factors. However, if the beneficiary's finances and health are not the constraining factors, it is possible to formally…
We propose a scheme or procedure for doing practical calculations with generalized seniority. It reduces the total computing time by calculating and storing in advance a set of intermediate quantities, taking advantage of the memory…
Using an extended version of the credit risk model CreditRisk+, we develop a flexible framework with numerous applications amongst which we find stochastic mortality modelling, forecasting of death causes as well as profit and loss…
To analyze and project age-specific mortality or morbidity rates age-period-cohort (APC) models are very popular. Bayesian approaches facilitate estimation and improve predictions by assigning smoothing priors to age, period and cohort…
Historical tontines promised enormous rewards to the last survivors at the expense of those who died early. While this design appealed to the gambling instinct, it is a suboptimal way to manage longevity risk during retirement. This is why…
In this paper we investigate the flexibility of matrix distributions for the modeling of mortality. Starting from a simple Gompertz law, we show how the introduction of matrix-valued parameters via inhomogeneous phase-type distributions can…
A linear mixed-effects (LME) model is proposed for modelling and forecasting single and multi-population age-specific death rates (ASDRs). The innovative approach that we take in this study treats age, the interaction between gender and…
The state-of-the-art proposes Life Care Annuities, that have been recently designed as variable annuity contracts with Long-Term Care payouts and Guaranteed Lifelong Withdrawal Benefits. In this paper, we propose more general features for…
Excess mortality, i.e. the difference between expected and observed mortality, is used to quantify the death toll of mortality shocks, such as infectious disease-related epidemics and pandemics. However, predictions of expected mortality…
Age-specific mortality improvements are non-uniform, neither across ages nor across time. We propose a two-step procedure to estimate the rates of mortality improvement (RMI) in age-specific death rates (ASDR) at ages 85 and above for ten…
Insurance and annuity products covering several lives require the modelling of the joint distribution of future lifetimes. In the interest of simplifying calculations, it is common in practice to assume that the future lifetimes among a…