Related papers: Retiree mortality forecasting: A partial age-range…
A simple mathematical model of the aging process for long-lived organisms is considered. The key point in this model is the assumption that the body does not have internal clocks that count out the chronological time at scales of decades.…
A widely-used model for determining the long-term health impacts of public health interventions, often called a "multistate lifetable", requires estimates of incidence, case fatality, and sometimes also remission rates, for multiple…
Designing proper treatment plans to manage diabetes requires health practitioners to pay heed to the individuals remaining life along with the comorbidities affecting them. Older adults with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) are prone to…
Tontines were once a popular type of mortality-linked investment pool. They promised enormous rewards to the last survivors at the expense of those died early. And, while this design appealed to the gambling instinc}, it is a suboptimal way…
Multivariate functional data that are cross-sectionally compositional data are attracting increasing interest in the statistical modeling literature, a major example being trajectories over time of compositions derived from cause-specific…
Retirees who exhaust their savings while still alive are said to experience financial ruin. These savings are typically grown during the accumulation phase then spent during the retirement decumulation phase. Extensive research into…
Will the United Kingdom's ageing population be fit and independent, or suffer from greater chronic ill health? Healthy life expectancy is commonly used to assess this: it is an estimate of how many years are lived in good health over the…
Methods for forecasting time series adhering to linear constraints have seen notable development in recent years, especially with the advent of forecast reconciliation. This paper extends forecast reconciliation to the open question of…
The main purpose of this work is to derive a partial differential equation for the reserves of life insurance liabilities subject to stochastic interest rates where the benefits and premiums depend directly on changes in the interest rate…
Parameter shrinkage applied optimally can always reduce error and projection variances from those of maximum likelihood estimation. Many variables that actuaries use are on numerical scales, like age or year, which require parameters at…
There is a great need for technologies that can predict the mortality of patients in intensive care units with both high accuracy and accountability. We present joint end-to-end neural network architectures that combine long short-term…
Background: Palliative care is referred to a set of programs for patients that suffer life-limiting illnesses. These programs aim to guarantee a minimum level of quality of life (QoL) for the last stage of life. They are currently based on…
The United Nations released official probabilistic population projections (PPP) for all countries for the first time in July 2014. These were obtained by projecting the period total fertility rate (TFR) and life expectancy at birth ($e_0$)…
The improvement of mortality projection is a pivotal topic in the diverse branches related to insurance, demography, and public policy. Motivated by the thread of Lee-Carter related models, we propose a Bayesian model to estimate and…
Index-based hedging solutions are used to transfer the longevity risk to the capital markets. However, mismatches between the liability of the hedger and the hedging instrument cause longevity basis risk. Therefore, an appropriate…
Living systems are subject to the arrow of time; from birth, they undergo complex transformations (self-organization) in a constant battle for survival, but inevitably ageing and disease trap them to death. Can ageing be understood and…
We forecast the full conditional distribution of macroeconomic outcomes by systematically integrating three key principles: using high-dimensional data with appropriate regularization, adopting rigorous out-of-sample validation procedures,…
In this article, I present a new approach and a novel model to the study of the life cycle of wages. The key idea is that wage can be thought as remuneration paid for the competency. It is assumed with the approach that there are three…
Tree-structured models are a powerful alternative to parametric regression models if non-linear effects and interactions are present in the data. Yet, classical tree-structured models might not be appropriate if data comes in clusters of…
In this paper, we investigate various stochastic orderings for series and parallel systems with independent and heterogeneous components having lifetimes following the proportional odds model. We also investigate comparisons between system…