Related papers: Influenza Modeling Based on Massive Feature Engine…

Seasonal variations in the incidence of infectious diseases are a well-established phenomenon, driven by factors such as climate changes, social behaviors, and ecological interactions that influence host susceptibility and transmission…

We perform an analytical sensitivity analysis for a model of a continuous-time branching process evolving on a fixed network. This allows us to determine the relative importance of the model parameters to the growth of the population on the…

Over the last ten years, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has organized an annual influenza forecasting challenge with the motivation that accurate probabilistic forecasts could improve situational awareness and yield…

Age-dependent dynamics is an important characteristic of many infectious diseases. Age-group epidemic models describe the infection dynamics in different age-groups by allowing to set distinct parameter values for each. However, such models…

The features in high dimensional biomedical prediction problems are often well described with lower dimensional manifolds. An example is genes that are organised in smaller functional networks. The outcome can then be described with the…

Timely and accurate forecasts of seasonal influenza would assist public health decision-makers in planning intervention strategies, efficiently allocating resources, and possibly saving lives. For these reasons, influenza forecasts are…

Shape-constrained functional data encompass a wide array of application fields, such as activity profiling, growth curves, healthcare and mortality. Most existing methods for general functional data analysis often ignore that such data are…

While machine learning is rapidly being developed and deployed in health settings such as influenza prediction, there are critical challenges in using data from one environment in another due to variability in features; even within disease…

Seasonal influenza infects between 10 and 50 million people in the United States every year, overburdening hospitals during weeks of peak incidence. Named by the CDC as an important tool to fight the damaging effects of these epidemics,…

We introduce an epidemic model with varying infectivity and general exposed and infectious periods, where the infectivity of each individual is a random function of the elapsed time since infection, those function being i.i.d. for the…

The systematic study of large-scale networks has unveiled the ubiquitous presence of connectivity patterns characterized by large scale heterogeneities and unbounded statistical fluctuations. These features affect dramatically the behavior…

Epidemics of infectious diseases are an important threat to public health and global economies. Yet, the development of prevention strategies remains a challenging process, as epidemics are non-linear and complex processes. For this reason,…

The seasonal human influenza virus undergoes rapid evolution, leading to significant changes in circulating viral strains from year to year. These changes are typically driven by adaptive mutations, particularly in the antigenic epitopes,…

Using fine-grained, publicly available data, this paper studies the short-term association between environmental factors, i.e., weather and air pollution characteristics, and weekly mortality rates in small geographical regions in Europe.…

Seasonal variation in environmental variables, and in rates of contact among individuals, are fundamental drivers of infectious disease dynamics. Unlike most periodically-forced physical systems, for which the precise pattern of forcing is…

The seasonality of respiratory diseases (common cold, influenza, etc.) is a well-known phenomenon studied from ancient times. The development of predictive models is still not only an actual unsolved problem of mathematical epidemiology but…

Laboratory models are often used to understand the interaction of related pathogens via host immunity. For example, recent experiments where ferrets were exposed to two influenza strains within a short period of time have shown how the…

Influenza poses a significant threat to public health, particularly among the elderly, young children, and people with underlying dis-eases. The manifestation of severe conditions, such as pneumonia, highlights the importance of preventing…

Among the realistic ingredients to be considered in the computational modeling of infectious diseases, human mobility represents a crucial challenge both on the theoretical side and in view of the limited availability of empirical data. In…

Accurate and representative data is vital for precisely reporting the impact of influenza in healthcare systems. Northern hemisphere winter 2022/23 experienced the most substantial influenza wave since the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020.…