Related papers: Influenza Modeling Based on Massive Feature Engine…
Persistent homology computes topological invariants from point cloud data. Recent work has focused on developing statistical methods for data analysis in this framework. We show that, in certain models, parametric inference can be performed…
Infectious diseases often spread faster near their peak than would be predicted given early data on transmission. Despite the commonality of this phenomena, there are no known general mechanisms able to cause an exponentially spreading dis-…
Most antigenically novel and evolutionarily successful strains of seasonal influenza A (H3N2) originate in East, South, and Southeast Asia. To understand this pattern, we simulated the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza in a…
The Influenza virus can be considered as one of the most severe viruses that can infect multiple species with often fatal consequences to the hosts. The Hemagglutinin (HA) gene of the virus can be a target for antiviral drug development…
Early detection and modeling of a contagious epidemic can provide important guidance about quelling the contagion, controlling its spread, or the effective design of countermeasures. A topic of recent interest has been to design social…
Seasonal influenza forecasting is critical for public health and individual decision making. We investigate whether the inclusion of data about influenza activity in neighboring states can improve point predictions and distribution…
Despite being similar in structure, functioning, and size viral pathogens enjoy very different mostly well-defined ways of life. They occupy their hosts for a few days (influenza), for a few weeks (measles), or even lifelong (HCV), which…
The increasing complexity of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) models has created a pressing need for tools that help scientists, engineers, and policymakers interpret and refine model decisions and predictions.…
Influenza viruses mutate rapidly and can pose a threat to public health, especially to those in vulnerable groups. Throughout history, influenza A viruses have caused pandemics between different species. It is important to identify the…
All-cause mortality is a very coarse grain, albeit very reliable, index to check the health implications of lifestyle determinants, systemic threats and socio-demographic factors. In this work we adopt a statistical-mechanics approach to…
Insect wings can undergo significant deformation during flapping motion owing to inertial, elastic and aerodynamic forces. Changes in shape then alter aerodynamic forces, resulting in a fully coupled Fluid-Structure Interaction (FSI)…
In this work we describe a non-parametric disease model that links the temporal change of the prevalence of an infectious disease to the incidence and the recovery rates. The model is only based on the common epidemiological measures…
The spread of viral pathogens is inherently a spatial process. While the temporal aspects of viral spread at the epidemiological level have been increasingly well characterized, the spatial aspects of viral spread are still understudied due…
In this paper, we carry out a computational study using the spectral decomposition of the fluctuations of a two-pathogen epidemic model around its deterministic attractor, i.e., steady state or limit cycle, to examine the role of partial…
Avian Influenza breakouts cause millions of dollars in damage each year globally, especially in Asian countries such as China and South Korea. The impact magnitude of a breakout directly correlates to time required to fully understand the…
Seasonal influenza presents an ongoing challenge to public health. The rapid evolution of the flu virus necessitates annual vaccination campaigns, but the decision to get vaccinated or not in a given year is largely voluntary, at least in…
In this paper we present ACEMod, an agent-based modelling framework for studying influenza epidemics in Australia. The simulator is designed to analyse the spatiotemporal spread of contagion and influenza spatial synchrony across the…
Massive datasets in the gigabyte and terabyte range combined with the availability of increasingly sophisticated statistical tools yield analyses at the boundary of what is computationally feasible. Compromising in the face of this…
This work is focussed on the inversion task of inferring the distribution over parameters of interest leading to multiple sets of observations. The potential to solve such distributional inversion problems is driven by increasing…
Background: Seasonal influenza causes a substantial burden on healthcare services over the winter period when these systems are already under pressure. Policies during the COVID-19 pandemic supressed the transmission of season influenza,…